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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (56117)	10/2/2015 12:15:02 AM
From: Elroy	Respond to of 78658

I've owned a bit of UAN for over a year. The distribution payout has been great, but the share price just keeps collapsing. cvrpartners.com I don't have any info about the fertilizer industry, so I really don't have any idea why the shares keep falling. I expect distributions to rang from 10%-15%. It generally pays out about 40 cents per quarter, so I think you're easily going to get 10% if you bought around $9.50, I would expect 15%-20% if I were you. But, as I said, I don't know squat about the fertilizer industry. == Nope, mistake. I've only owned it since this May. It's been a real dog, paid $14 and all it does is go down. Going backwards, their distributions were Q2 2015 - 39 cents Q1 2015 - 45 cents Q4 2014 - 41 cents Q3 2014 - 27 cents Q2 2014 - 33 cents Q1 2014 - 38 cents If memory serves correct there was a fire that caused the Q3 2014 facility to be offline for a month or so, aside from that those are sort of normal distibutions, so expect between 35 and 45 cents? No? Yes, I think I recall when I bought the thinking was the distribution appears to be about $1.60 per year, so a $14 share price seems fair. I don't have any access to fertilizer prices, so am expecting ~40 cents distribution for the just completed Q3 when they announce it. We'll see - I hope your $20 price target works. For me, I doubt I'll ever sell this stock. Anything that yields over 8% is fine with me as a permanent buy and hold. So if the shares go to $20 I'm a happy camper, but I probably won't sell. If the shares go to $5 I'm depressed, but as long as they keep paying about 40 cents per quarter, I won't give up and sell.