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Strategies & Market Trends : Dino's Bar & Grill -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Goose94 who wrote (14436)

10/3/2015 2:26:41 PM

From: Goose94

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 203630

Hikes Keep On Slippin', Slippin', Slipin' Into the Future; Treasury Yields Sink Again

Treasury Yields Drop AgainCurve Watcher's Anonymous notes a further plunge in yields today following the disastrous payroll and factory order reports.

Yield on the 30-year long bond fell to 2.80% from 2.85% yesterday. Yield on the 10-year note once again sports a 1-handle at 1.97%, down from 2.03%.

Duration	Current Yield	Yield Month Ago	Yield Year Ago	Yield vs Month Ago	Yield vs. Year Ago
3-Month	-0.01	0.02	0.02	-0.03	-0.03
6-Month	0.05	0.26	0.05	-0.21	0.00
1-Year	0.22	0.35	0.10	-0.13	0.12
2-Year	0.57	0.73	0.27	-0.16	0.30
5-Year	1.27	1.55	1.73	-0.28	-0.46
10-Year	1.97	2.18	2.42	-0.21	-0.45
30-Year	2.80	2.99	3.18	-0.19	-0.38

Treasury Yields vs. Month and Year Ago

Data plotted from Bloomberg US Treasury Yields.

Rate Hike OddsCurve Watcher's Anonymous also has an eye on rate hike odds. Here is a chart I put together on the evolution of rate hike odds. I captured two previous data points. Today I added October 2.

Data for the above from CME FedWatch.

FOMC Meeting Date	Rate Hike Odds on Oct 2	Rate Hike Odds on Sep 22	Rate Hike Odds on Sep 21
28-Oct-15	6.90	11.50	13.80
16-Dec-15	28.50	35.50	43.80
27-Jan-16	38.80	44.70	54.60
16-Mar-16	50.60	59.70	66.90

The above table is a bit simplified because there is a chance of hikes bigger or smaller than a quarter point. However, I believe it is safe to discount multiple hikes until we at least see the first one.

And following today's disastrous data reports, I think it is safe to rule out hikes this year. In honor of that statement and with a tip of the hat to my friend "BC" who suggested the song, I present this musical tribute.

Mike Shedlock