Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Liberalism: Do You Agree We've Had Enough of It? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chartseer who wrote (185467)	10/5/2015 11:35:06 AM
From: jlallen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 224737

Well, math was never my strongest subject....lol Kenny seems to have gone silent....

To: chartseer who wrote (185467)	10/5/2015 2:11:42 PM
From: TimF	1 Recommendation Recommended By TideGlider Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 224737

1870 is 145 years ago. Under a century and a half not two to three centuries. That is a long time, and you can base models off observations for that time period to guess that since intensity A happened X times in 145 years, that intensity B should happen once in 500 or 1000 years, but only if your assuming that the particular 145 years your looking at is the norm and that each 145 year period would look similar. Those are not safe assumptions. Beyond that, as I've already pointed out. You can expect a once in a 1000 year event somewhere in the world rather frequently. There are a lot of places in the world that can have record rainfall, record flooding ,record highs, record lows, record wind speeds, record temperature changes etc. Considering the size of the world and the number of different types of records there are probably multiple "hasn't happened in 1000 years" events every year (and others that have happened in 1000 years but which a the type of statistical models that you where talking about point to the conclusion that they haven't happened)