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To: Fred Fahmy who wrote (43105)12/23/1997 1:05:00 AM
From: greenspirit  Respond to of 186894
 
Hi Fred, here's an interesting article describing how Canadians feel about the Net. Notice the percentage of home computer ownership and the percentage of Internet usage.

newsbytes.com

Canadians Call For Internet Regulation
Canadians Call For Internet Regulation 12/22/97 CANADA, MONTREAL, QUEBEC, 1997 DEC 22 (NB) -- By Martin Stone. Canadians are growing increasingly suspicious of the Internet and favor government regulation of cyberspace, says a poll released today by the Global TV Network and the Southam Newspaper chain.
The survey's numbers indicate women, especially mothers of young children, are leading the call for Internet control. When asked if they favor government-enacted laws to regulate the Internet, 66 percent of Canadian adults said yes. Among women in the 35-54 age group, 80 percent say they favor regulation.

The Southam-Global survey of 1,410 adult Canadians was conducted between Nov. 28 and Dec. 2. Results are considered accurate within 3.4 percentage points, 19 times in 20.

Peter Cooney, New Media Manager at the Montreal Gazette, a Southam newspaper, told Newsbytes he feels effective government regulation is impossible at that parental guidance and supervision is the best way to monitor the information children receive via the Net.

He also suspects the present technology cannot do a thorough job of filtering out objectionable material. "As a parent myself, I wouldn't rely on technology to do the job for me," he said.

The survey's analyzers blame a new wave of Internet users which has joined the original users, according to Duncan Mackie, senior vice-president of Pollara, the national polling firm that surveyed Canadian attitudes toward the Internet and other high-tech products.

"We have gone beyond the trailblazers, or first wave of users, who typically would not favor any regulation," he told Southam. "The trailblazers were predominantly young, affluent, middle-class males, but the second wave is more likely to consist of families using the Internet for information and entertainment.

"They are sensitive to such things as violence and pornography in other media, so it isn't surprising they would be sensitive to it on the Internet," he concludes, adding that the fact it is currently technologically impossible to fully regulate the World Wide Web is no deterrent to those who want regulation.

"There's a moral imperative at play. People might know there are technical obstacles but they want somebody to keep trying anyway," he surmised.

Cooney says, "The truth is, anyone who uses the Net, even kids, can soon learn to circumvent the controls."

David Jones, president of the anti-censorship group Electronic Frontier Canada, admitted to Southam that the poll result is disappointing, but suggests people will change their minds about regulation the more they use the Internet.

"The more experience people have on the Net, the more they appreciate its openness," he said. Jones, a professor at McMaster University in Hamilton, Ont., added: "They come to realize that they can make choices themselves and they don't need some bureaucrat to decide what they can see or not."

Further, Jones says there are too many myths about the Internet. "The truth is that the vast majority of content is not porn, but if you want adult content, you can find it. It's really more reflective of the individual than the Internet."

The survey also finds that despite concerns over the seedier side of cyberspace, 52 percent of Canadians say the Internet contains useful information and services. But, another 33 percent are more skeptical and say material on the Net is either useless or questionable.

"The Internet has been incredibly hyped and oversold," Mackie says in the Southam papers, "and that adds to people's disappointment and frustration. They have to wait a long time and wade through a lot of junk to find something meaningful. Many are saying they might as well go back to books."

Cooney says he suspects that once Internet service is offered by more cable TV and telephone systems rather than local ISPs, content will be easier to regulate. But he cautions against over-filtration. "If you take out a keyword like 'sex' you may lose a possibly essential medical site."

The poll also shows that most Canadians do not have access to the Internet. Only 16 percent have access at work, 13 percent at home and 10 percent have access in both places. But, of those Canadians without a home computer, 22 percent say they intend to buy one in the next year.

The number of Canadians with home computers will probably stand at 30 percent by the end of 1998, Mackie speculates, but adds that computer ownership is still confined to high-earning Canadians.

_____________________________________________________________________

Regards, Michael



To: Fred Fahmy who wrote (43105)12/23/1997 2:51:00 PM
From: David S.  Respond to of 186894
 
Fred, We can always count on you to take the longer perspective
not to mention the right perspective. I fully agree with you.
Intel's best days are yet to come. The info revolution is in
its infancy and Intel is at the heart of it. The monopoly angle
may be part of it, but most of it is hard work and the power
of numbers.

Regards, David S. (no. 1)
Long on Intel and Iomega

Thanks Dave S. II for taking a different name. I prefer David.



To: Fred Fahmy who wrote (43105)12/23/1997 8:03:00 PM
From: Harry Landsiedel  Respond to of 186894
 
Fred Fahmy. Re: Intel's future. Thanx for your well-reasoned post. I could not concur more strongly that Intel will just get better from here. I really don't understand what "facts" all the pundits are looking at to make their gloomy prognosications about Intel. I guess there is something in human nature that wants to tear down success.

I think this article puts the under 1K computers in perspective. What I liked the most is that they are not taking over the category but are expanding it. Most of those upgrading are spending more not less. The conclusions are what one would expect when a new lower priced segment opens up in a category for the 1st time.

news.com

Have a happy holiday.

HL



To: Fred Fahmy who wrote (43105)12/26/1997 7:17:00 AM
From: pwrmstr  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 186894
 
Fred, thanks for articulating the long-term bullish case for Intel so well. I'd agree that with Intel 30% off of its recent highs, Intel bulls are really the contrarian view at this point. While there are no guarantees about Intel's future, there are many lessons from the company's past that we should at least understand before dismissing Intel's prospects as many investors are currently doing. I'm an aggressive accumulator of the stock because we are in one of those rare incredible buying opportunities where the 3-5 year fundamentals look great but the stock is trading at a slight discount to the market multiple.

Lesson #1: Intel has been one of the best performing stocks over the past five years by rising againt a continual cycle of over and underconfidence by investors. These cycles have been driven by a combination of fear and greed driven by an inability of the market to handle the tremendous ambiguity associated with the evolution of the PC industry. Just when investors think they have nailed down one paradigm and things couldn't get better, the world changes and everyone panics. People have been panicking for years about the maturation of the PC industry, but the internet and the associated PC boom caught most people by surprise. Count on more surprsises in the future that Intel will figure out a way to capitalize on.

Lesson #2: The markets for PC-related technology will continue to evolve in new, difficult to predict ways. Market leaders like Intel that act paranoid will continue to drive many of these changes and capture their fair share of the rewards.

Lesson #3: Intel has always had competitors and has always left them in the dust. Do people recall the AMD litigation? How about the PowerPC? How about Cyrix, DEC, MIPS and NexGen? Of all these competitors, only IBM (with the PowerPC) has thrived since '94, but that was only because the PowerPC was a small part of their business.

Lesson #4: Intel's profit spurts often catch investors by surprise because they often occur at the end of painful product transitions characterised by stagnating demand and profits. The move from the Pentium to the Pentium II is nearing its end, and while the Sub $1k market using Pentiums is attracting new users, the core high profit consumers are also aggressively buying the Pentium II machines (per industry holiday sales surveys). As companies upgrade to Windows NT 5.0, they are also going to invest in high end machines to prevent instant obsalescence. These trends suggest to me that Intel has the potential for some nice upside surprises next year, if history repeats itself.

Lesson #4. Never sell Intel out of fear. This is a classic Buy and Hold stock if you have a 3-5 year time horizon.

Happy Holidays