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Technology Stocks : Osicom(FIBR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lisa who wrote (3701)	12/23/1997 12:31:00 AM
From: Grantcw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10479

Lisa, I will be glad to tell you why I'm in FIBR, and then I'll give you my hypothesis of why the stock price is down. Why FIBR is undervalued IMHO: FIBR has estimated EPS of .95 next year and a 40% (I think) 5-year growth rate beyond that. Following the Motley Fool's methodology, we'd have ourselves a nic 40 X .95 = $38 next year. The problem with using this method is that Osicom hasn't hit expectations in a while. IMO it looks like their new products are being taken by the market fairly readily as evidenced by their increased backlog of orders. I can't think of another reason why their backorders would be so high. Can anyone give me a scenario? With revenues back up to normal levels with high-margin products, Osicom seems like it is on the road back to profitability. I don't know if they will make .07 a share or not next quarter, but I haven't lost faith yet as everything looks in order. Making next quarter's earnings would sure set my mind at ease (And my brokerage account). Then I think we could start using the Motley Fool's valuation techniques. Until then, we're speculating. Valuing this company against competitors has already been discussed on this board recently with Ciena and our $285 price target. It would seem pretty hard to make that this year even with wonderful news. I guess a few years down the road anything is possible though. I can see how the comparison works though. Ciena has the Long Haul DWDM products and are competing with Northern Telecom and Lucent as well as a soon-to-be host of others. From what I've read, FIBR has the only short-haul product. Ciena is working on their Metro product, but it's not close to being on the market yet, Bummer eh? David, is there any other company out there with a short-haul product almost on the market? I'm pretty sure someone posted in the last week that someone at the shareholders meeting claimed that the long-haul and short-haul markets were relatively equal. That would make our valuation look pretty good as we have the only product in the short-haul, while Ciena is battling major competitors in the long-haul. I just wish investors would take notice. Why is the stock price depressed? Who would look to "invest" in Nasdaq small caps right now. How many investors know which small caps are getting booted off the exchange and which are staying? I sure don't! No investor wants to invest in a company that could soon be fairly illiquid. From what this board has said, our company looks like it won't be kicked off, but no one can be sure. Are insiders going to buy right now? No way. All of the major insiders with over 50,000 shares stand to be multi-millionaires if our valuation of the company holds up. They don't need anymore. Employees won't buy either, yet. They only have a week or two before they can buy Osicom tax-free in their 401k. I'd wait too. Downside of Osicom: IMHO, I don't see why it's fallen this far. Even without the Gigamux, IQX-200, and Net+Arm the company should be higher than 2. As I see it, the only downside risk to Osicom is if Par and Witz are truly fradulent. That would kill us. I don't think that's true, so I'm still in FIBR. Sorry for the long post Lisa. Hope I encouraged your belief in FIBR. I wish I had some substantial insights on FIBR that weren't expressed on this board, but I've received most of my info from this board and have no inside information. I'm just really excited about the long-term prospects of FIBR! Thanks for the welcome. Grant