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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (15905)	12/23/1997 12:50:00 AM
From: George Mc Geary	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

IQ, thanks for your posts prior to your vacation I was able to short the SPZ when it dipped below your designated criteria for a quick day trip and come up with a 75% profit. Good percentage but not much money. Had it not been for your input doubt I would have taken the action. At least I was a winner on the option while I watched the portfolio tank. Hope you and your family are preparing for a great holiday season. Think you are still in Pakistan but am not certain. Have a wonderful Holiday Season and thanks again for your insights. George

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (15905)	12/23/1997 10:41:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (7) \| Respond to of 50167

Market late sell off emanating from worries from ASEAN economies and especially Koreas 'flabberghasting financial problems' as quoted by the new President elect took the pudits on the Wall Street a perfect reason to parade the ginnie of ASEA once again- I just don't think that Jspanese banking problems and ASEANs economies have turned the growth to negative- as latest as Nov we see rather little signs of serious reduction in imports or increasing trade balance- the current account deficit is not deteriorating and moreover all these markets are accordingly priced for adverse reports. The earnings next quarter will not show a huge slowdown in my opinion there is nothing fundamental to indicate that ASEAN crisis will destroy US corporate prospects- ASEA as a percentage of US GDP does not command a very high proportion or percentage and even that percentage is not showing signs of weakness if you consider import figures issued as late as Nov. I hope I could read numbers out of context and play a different kind of tune but this is not what I see the markets fundamentals remain intact- I see all this as a basing action in a thin market- it was expected last night as Nekkei futures indicated a a 250 point discount over cash that Japan will cut thru 14400 today although it is still at 14790 I don't expect much of a serious debacle there. Japanese problem loans are a serious issue but it is the unknown impact of this loans that market is unable to take out 16800- the market is weak will stay weak but will the crisis snowball I think we will see as we go near to earning seasons that confidence will be restored to the markets once it is common knowledge that fears have been blown out of proportion.Loans are not yet fully provided but Yen competitiveness as a result of weakness will bode well for Japanese corporates the stimulas package will bring 'demand side' activity in the realms of markets. A fear driven market in contrast to 'exuberent' market with uncertainities abound is a market one should be careful to short- a thin market last night did take SPA to 945-46 area however I expect that we will see some active trading in short market action- market will test 943 or even lower but I expect on close market to close above 955- on SOX 250 will be probed and I expect not broken I will think SOX closing around 260 level- it is important that pshycological level of 77780 on DOW is taken out by Friday otherwise market will not hesitate to recheck the resolve and test the SPA historical low at 937 or even lower at DOW 7585- area if it takes it out I will think that 910 sits as a target with only air between 935 and 910 I will be looking to establish quick shorts and also see SOX break of 250 as an opportunity to play on the down side. This is a range bound market and one needs to look at key supports very carefully- without fallng in love with marekts one can easily trade possiblities on both sides- the acid test of a break is if a level or a support is taken out and you start feeling that index is lingering there far too long. When pits want to take out stops on supports the action is swift and fast one with experience will see this happening a lot of times. I am looking at one level which is a avery attractive level for shorts to pierce that is 7585 on DOW- will shorts try to test this level by Friday I would assume that once so close to it a retest can be a reality in a thin market but I will coordinate my actions with Composite SOX and SPA if you see SOX not breaking 240 and DOW testing this proverbial low it is better to cover your shorts on SPA as a broad market decline should include composite and SOX indexes to weaken as Nemer says the red dog/ may bark. I also see that any earning pre-announcement before the close of this week may put spanner in bulls work- barring earnings preannouncemntas and general slow down I expect DOW to close above these levels. Hope to see a good consoildation today but don't forget the levels on the downside. 943/ 250 /break is harbinger for lower tests whereas a close above 960 and 262 will send a strong signal to ASDEAN markets over the christmas eve- Japan should be able to take out 15000 0n base of that- I wish we would not have closed below 15000 a second close today but such is realities of market the dynamics dictate that we remain vigilante and try to cover our supports with active intervention without getting whipsawed. Best regards until christmas.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (15905)	12/24/1997 4:12:00 PM
From: Judy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

To all: T'is time to be with family and friends and to bask in the warmth of love, friendship and good cheer. Have a Merry Christmas. Ike, my dear, still waiting for those biryani recipes!