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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: drsvelte who wrote (8774)	12/23/1997 1:04:00 AM
From: Jon Tara	Respond to of 9285

Dr., I damn near went short VTS (an oil service company) this morning, as the technical evidence was insurmountable. (I had already bailed out of a long position.) But with a split, excellent earnings, earnings growth, and a low P/E, I decided it made more sense to just wait for the right opportunity to go long. But, short term, the short would have worked. Same deal with AOL, in the reverse. The technical evidence that it would go up, at least short term, was insurmountable. (Yea, yea, I wanted to short on Friday - things change. :) ) But better to wait for the right time to short it.

To: drsvelte who wrote (8774)	12/23/1997 2:48:00 AM
From: Bill Wexler	Respond to of 9285

Well if the oil drillers would just get on the ball, start a web site and lose millions of dollars - then maybe their stocks would go up for a change.

To: drsvelte who wrote (8774)	12/23/1997 3:03:00 AM
From: Bill Wexler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

Another fun comparison between Yahoo! and U.S. Steel!! You can now buy all of U.S. Steel for about $750,000,000 less than Yahoo. U.S. Steel's dividend of about $1.00 a share (when multiplied by all shares outstanding) is roughly 2x the gross TTM revenues for Yahoo. Hell, at the rate Yahoo's stock price is climbing, they'll be able to do a stock-only LBO of U.S. Steel by the end of January.

To: drsvelte who wrote (8774)	12/24/1997 6:49:00 AM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

drsvelte>>Things are insane when we wait for AOL to get to 100 to short! Yikes! At the same time you've got the drillers beaten down to incredibly low P/E's with demonstrable product and earnings. What is wrong with this picture?<< IMO the market is starting to break down. Weird sector rotations going on. Nifty 50's environmemt of the late 60's developing...Drug stocks, AOL, YHOO, BFIT going higher just becouse of no Asia exposure... How is PG doing? haven't checked a quote but bet you it is over 80 and a PE approaching 40 for a joint that has traditionally grown at about 7% (they are in the business of doubling every 10 years which is not chicken S... either, but does not justify a MSFT style PE). Pancho PS: I forgot GE. Anyone out there short GE? The problem with shorting GE, PG, AHP is the dividend payment. That is a considerable expense for shorts. I have a small long position in G. If I didn't have my position spread over 4 keogg accounts I would sell.