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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Andrew Fenic who wrote (26183)	12/23/1997 1:28:00 AM
From: Rio Jangada	Respond to of 176388

Andrew, I think you got the number of CPQ shares wrong. Yahoo gives a market cap of over $41 billion. Nonetheless, I feel your on the right track. Dell peaked many months ago coming off of several quarters of phenomenal earnings growth. They had been at the right place at the right time. Now build-to-order and internet sales have been replicated by others, DELL is missing the fast growing consumer market, while SUN and SGI high-end systems are being marketed for would-be DELL buyers cutting hopes for DELL in workstations and servers, and PC clone production capacity has risen tremendously, while worldwide demand has slackened due to Asian problems (not unlike the disk-drive and memory chip makers), DELL will miss this formerly high-growth market, while other makers will seek to dump their goods at even lower cost elsewhere strangling DELLs hopes. I've profited much from DELL drops and anticipate many more opportunities. I'm short now and will short more and buy puts in each mini-tech rally. Good luck to you on this soon to be "fallen angel". RJ

To: Andrew Fenic who wrote (26183)	12/23/1997 2:32:00 AM
From: jim kelley	Respond to of 176388

Andrew, You have DELL's shares outstanding wrong. There are actually less than 330M shares actually outstanding. The weighted average shares last quarter was 360M. This quarterthe time weighted average will be 356M. Also DELL is at the 13 billion/year revenue rate not 7 billion. So its is getting approximately 2 X its revenue rate not 3 X.

To: Andrew Fenic who wrote (26183)	12/23/1997 8:21:00 AM
From: Boplicity	Respond to of 176388

Andy, <<IoMega syndrome >> Even if IOM and DELL are not even close as companies go (DELL is a much better company then IOM) the DELL heads did have a trip to DELL land just as the IOMEGENS did. Greg

To: Andrew Fenic who wrote (26183)	12/23/1997 8:32:00 AM
From: Mohan Marette	Respond to of 176388

Andrew, double check your information. you said <Compaq has 275M shares outstanding * $55 per share = $15 billion> --------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPAQ -Share-Related Items Market Capitalization $42.7B Shares Outstanding 758.1M Float 621.6M DELL- Share-Related Items Market Capitalization $28.8B Shares Outstanding 326.4M Float 251.4M

To: Andrew Fenic who wrote (26183)	12/23/1997 8:43:00 AM
From: John Hauser	Respond to of 176388

Andrew, I may be a total amateur but what was IOM's valuation at it's peak? I think it's P/E was in the upper stratosphere when compared to Dell's, and they didn't have but a fraction of Dell's revenues at the time. I think Dell's valuation is higher because of it's more rapid growth. I think you may see CPQ's valuation rise rather than Dell's fall. But what do I know? JH

To: Andrew Fenic who wrote (26183)	12/23/1997 12:50:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176388

Andrew, please check your facts concerning market caps. Dell has about 330 MM shares o/s. But regardless, valuation by comparing sales and earnings to market caps leads to specious results. You raise a larger issue that needs to be addressed -- how to value growth. Let's assume that we have two companies equal in every way including sales, earnings, margin, capital structure and shares outstanding. But company A is believed to have much greater growth prospects than company B. It is certain that company A's shares will priced higher than company B's. The problem is how much higher. So far as I know, there are no really good methods of valuation for growth. PEG and YPEG are much too naive to be reliable. Any decent valuation model would have to be based on the present value of expected free cash flows, but the major problems I see are: 1. How much of a risk premium to assign to the discount factor; and 2. How is it possible to forecast earnings growth beyond a very short time frame? Regards, Paul