To: Land Shark who wrote (896983 ) 10/28/2015 11:54:43 AM From: i-node Read Replies (2) | Respond to That is not a blog. It is a news article. And what they are doing is using the IPCC's own quoted material to shoot down the claims of others who try to use IPCC as support for these issues. So, for your enjoyment, here is what IPCC actually said. "Low Confidence". "Not Enough Evidence". "Low Confidence." "Probably Overstated." "Low Confidence." "Low Confidence." "Confidence is Low." "Statistically Significant Decrease in Tropical Cyclones". "Changes are less coherent."Now, you tell me which of these comments from IPCC you find suggestive, IN THE LEAST, of greater "climate chaos" or "Extreme Weather Events." In summary, there is low confidence in observed trends in small-scale severe weather phenomena such as hail and thunderstorms because of historical data inhomogeneities and inadequacies in monitoring systems. In summary, the current assessment concludes that there is not enough evidence at present to suggest more than low confidence in a global-scale observed trend in drought or dryness (lack of rainfall) since the middle of the 20th century, due to lack of direct observations, geographical inconsistencies in the trends, and dependencies of inferred trends on the index choice. Based on updated studies, AR4 conclusions regarding global increasing trends in drought since the 1970s were probably overstated . However, it is likely that the frequency and intensity of drought has increased in the Mediterranean and West Africa and decreased in central North America and north-west Australia since 1950. This combined with issues with defining events, leads to the assessment that there is medium confidence that globally the length and frequency of warm spells, including heat waves, has increased since the middle of the 20th century although it is likely that heatwave frequency has increased during this period in large parts of Europe, Asia and Australia. In summary, there continues to be a lack of evidence and thus low confidence regarding the sign of trend in the magnitude and/or frequency of floods on a global scale. In summary, this assessment does not revise the SREX conclusion of low confidence that any reported long-term (centennial) increases in tropical cyclone activity are robust , after accounting for past changes in observing capabilities… In summary, confidence in large scale changes in the intensity of extreme extratropical cyclones since 1900 is low . There is also low confidence for a clear trend in storminess proxies over the last century due to inconsistencies between studies or lack of long-term data in some parts of the world (particularly in the SH). Likewise, confidence in trends in extreme winds is low , due to quality and consistency issues with analysed data…evidence suggests slight decreases in the frequency of tropical cyclones making landfall in the North Atlantic and the South Pacific , once uncertainties in observing methods have been considered. Little evidence exists of any longer-term trend in other ocean basins … Several studies suggest an increase in intensity, but data sampling issues hamper these assessments… Callaghan and Power (2011) find a statistically significant decrease in Eastern Australia land-falling tropical cyclones since the late 19th century although including 2010/2011 season data this trend becomes non-significant (i.e., a trend of zero lies just inside the 90% confidence interval). Changes in extremes for other climate variables are generally less coherent than those observed for temperature, due to data limitations and inconsistencies between studies, regions and/or seasons. However, increases in precipitation extremes, for example, are consistent with a warmer climate. Analyses of land areas with sufficient data indicate increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in recent decades, but results vary strongly between regions and seasons. For instance, evidence is most compelling for increases in heavy precipitation in North America, Central America and Europe, but in some other regions—such as southern Australia and western Asia—there is evidence of decreases. Likewise, drought studies do not agree on the sign of the global trend, with regional inconsistencies in trends also dependent on how droughts are defined. However, indications exist that droughts have increased in some regions (e.g., the Mediterranean) and decreased in others
