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To: The Ox who wrote (4445)	10/28/2015 12:43:21 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8239

Excellent chart and analysis to support your viewpoint. Are there any reasons to suspect that the market is likely to fail to set new highs in all the major indexes going forward? You better believe it. First the Fed has done everything it can to create a booming economy and failed. That's because the Fed cannot do it alone. We need incentives for small businesses to grow again and we have none. How many Americans of working age are actually out of the workforce? Around 93 million. How many are receiving one form of Federal aid, food stamps and whatnot? I believe we have 40 million on food stamps and many, many, more receiving other forms of help instead of working which would be helping our economy growth rather than adding to our national debt. But things are just fine and getting better right? Not at all. Whatever earnings growth that is still apparent is based more upon lowered forecasts, share buybacks and company downsizing than at any other time that I have ever been invested in the stock market. In other words earnings growth is an illusion. How long will investors be willing to pay above the mean for stocks without actually earnings growth? We currently (over the last year) have more mergers and acquisitions going on than I can ever remember. Keep in mind that mergers and acquisitions are always highest at market tops. We also hit new heights in margin borrowing and are finally working off some of that excess but we have yet to see real panic. Of course the market is rallying now after we hit a period of extreme negativity in August. Sentiment matters a lot but in a real bear market extreme negativity can last for months. We have not seen that yet. So why might this rally fail? First we never got a 9-1 up day at the bottom. We did not get two 8-1 up days in close succession. We still have a lot of stocks setting 52 week lows like MRVL did yesterday. The Dow Transports have not hit a new high in a long time. Small caps are not anywhere near all time highs. Banks are failing to confirm this rally. In addition we need to see more up volume this month than we had down volume last month for the S&P 500, DJIA and NASDAQ and we are running out of October. Will this rally be strong enough to overcome all these problems? Maybe... but I doubt it. Whichever way it goes it will all show up on these charts below: