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Biotech / Medical : ARIAD Pharmaceuticals -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mulanoon2007 who wrote (3965)	11/3/2015 2:24:13 PM
From: tktom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4474

I'm quite surprised this isn't much lower in share price. Metrics were a disaster..Quarter over quarter US sales decline. It's as if there are no patients progressing and needing a third line compound. May be more short covering is holding it up? Marty is the ultimate spin Doctor with Iclusig sales metrics. The analysts are asking intelligent questions so they can model Ariad's prospects, but all Marty can say we can't reveal those numbers (like # of patients still on the drug). I suppose that is why the coverage of Ariad is so sparse..

To: mulanoon2007 who wrote (3965)	11/3/2015 3:06:53 PM
From: Biomaven	Respond to of 4474

Yes, the delay in partnering briga and the delay in announcing a new CEO both increase the chance that someone takes them out in the near term. Peter

To: mulanoon2007 who wrote (3965)	11/3/2015 10:36:57 PM
From: jaybe	1 Recommendation Recommended By mulanoon2007 Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4474

I agree, disappointing call on a few fronts. IMO postponing early ALTA readout to ASCO (2 wks. after stating they would disclose sooner) is related to a non-disclosure agreement with a potential bidder. Ultimately 12-month PFS data is what matters for approval, not response rate, so there is no real delay to the data, just to the disclosure. No doubt they have a data set to shop around, it was submitted to AACR-EORTC meeting and then subsequently withdrawn. Regarding '788, AACR abstracts are due Dec. 1st, and will be posted online March 16th. But, IMO the patent application will publish this year, with or without a new CEO ribbon cutting. Think about the timeline, if you believe the website '788 was designed and nominated in one year (2014). In June of 2014 (ASM) Tim C. said they were "very far along" and already conducting IND-enabling studies. We also know Ariad registered as a CRO in June of 2014 in order to conduct in-house these studies, and thus avoid any potential disclosure to third parties. Given the above I believe a provisional patent app was filed in Q2 '14, with full patent app in Q2'15 and therefore will publish any given Thursday from now until EOY (18 months from 1st filing). And given what we know to date, I think '788 is likely a next-gen, pan-EGFR inhibitor, addressing all forms (Ex. 19, 20, and 21) of primary and secondary resistance in EGFRm and Her-2+ NSCLC, but would likely be focused, initially, on unmet need of T790M- (negative) population, 45% of frontline EGFR TKI resistance. Her-2+ represents ~30% of this 45% resistant population. There are a few competitors in the pipeline with OR rates ranging from 20-50%.