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Technology Stocks : Western Digital (WDC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Wang who wrote (8312)	12/23/1997 1:44:00 PM
From: Sam	Respond to of 11057

John, I agree with everything you say, including "Which of the three top HDD makers will appreciate more from here is anybody's call." I was just making my own guess. Far be it from me to think anyone--including QNTM--is "invincible" in this business. And as to your last point, "What if the price war suddenly abates? Remember no analyst came out and predict this sudden price war and severe earning erosion? Who can guarantee that they will not be wrong again?" That too is surely right. Indeed, we can almost guarantee that they WILL be wrong again, and when the turn comes, it will be very sharp. By the by, it becomes a waiting game. The biggest fear I have is that we are stuck in a trading range for years, as the drive stocks were from the mid/late 80s to the early 90s. That is possibly exacerbating the buyers strike too. However, the number of players is so diminished from then--especially considering the number of non-captive independents--that I don't think that that will happen this time. At some point in the next year, SEG, QNTM and WDC will come back into favor, assuming that SEG isn't swamped by massive currency losses and still far too many contenders in the enterprise sector, WDC makes its MR transition without too much more trouble, and QNTM can keep Bigfoot and DLT selling well without too many losses in their heads venture and enterprise drives. Best wishes, Sam

To: John Wang who wrote (8312)	12/23/1997 5:40:00 PM
From: Thomas Haegin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11057

What if price war suddenly ends? John, << What if the price war suddenly abates? >> Interesting little note. What clues you think we can watch out for? Prices at the retail level? Is there something like a current benchmark HDD whose price we can keep track of? Maybe a decrease in the rate of price erosion would mark an end to the war already since prices are spiraling down constantly. I don't know, I'm making only guesses. I'll be on vacation until 01/03 and may not have an Internet there, so please bear with me if I do not check in until then. In any case Merry Christmas to you all and thanks for the interesting contributions from all. See you, Thomas