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To: fut_trade who wrote (4975)12/23/1997 1:30:00 PM
From: santhosh mohan  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27307
 
I think there will be a secondary offering with substantial selling by insiders sometime early next year. I cannot believe that the insiders have the intestinal fortitude to continue holding at these levels. The nightmare scenario for shorts is if one of the investment banking firms boosts the stock prior to announcing a secondary.

The way this stock is behaving you would think that somebody knows about blowout earnings and/or there is takeover speculation. Or is it just year-end window dressing?



To: fut_trade who wrote (4975)12/23/1997 1:34:00 PM
From: LRS  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27307
 
Peter,

Actually, most VC funds have 2 or 3 year (sometimes more) lifecycles for their funds. So, with Sequoia you will definitely see more than 100,000 shares starting to be unraveled by them in January. IPOs are usually the liquidity event (which would not have made sense for them in this case); in this situation, I think the 600% gain this year will be enough for them.

Also, this will likely take the form of distributions to their investors and not outright sales per se---which is actually worse (for longs) because the float will increase by 6 million shares (the new owners of the distributed shares will not have volume restrictions on their sales like Yang/Filo/Softbank.)