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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (12213)	12/23/1997 2:13:00 PM
From: dave katragadda	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

Mohan, I have been following your posts for quite sometime. You are doing a great job. I think there will be lot more bankruptcies in korea and Japan. What do you think are good shorts right now. Or should we wait till Jan 10th or so to short more aggressively. I have been meaning to talk to you on the phone. Can you send me an e-mail on how to contact you. We might be related if you speak telugu. My e-mail address katragadda@aol.com Thank you

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (12213)	12/23/1997 2:21:00 PM
From: Jonathan Wang	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

Can someone give me a rough idea how much LRCX earning has been revising down since the turmoil in ASIA. Your response is appreciated. Thank you.

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (12213)	12/23/1997 2:27:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18056

It looks like Briefing.com is now officially bearish: Today's Briefing.com commentary. Markets: briefing.com Excerpts: <<The main story will be the emerging earnings crisis. That the latter is partially an outgrowth of the former doesn't matter. What does matter is that investors are ignoring the warning signs of this crisis just as they did with the Asian crisis when the Indonesian, Malaysian and the Philippine currencies were under fire. In the past three weeks alone over 40 companies have warned of, or reported, disappointing sales/earnings growth. If it were one sector such as technology or energy exhibiting weakness, maybe the slowdown could be explained away as sector specific. But the warnings/disappointing reports have come from a diverse group of companies. Included on the list are Nike, 3M, JP Morgan, Oracle, Anchor Gaming, Oxford Health, Briggs & Stratton, FSI International, Tenneco, Western Digital (several times), Suburban Lodges and Microsoft. This does not include companies which warned earlier such as Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble (the latter recently set a new 52-wk high).>> Re. Techs: briefing.com Excerpts: <<All of a sudden, the tone in the tech sector has changed... Fears of a protracted decline due to the deepening financial crisis in Asia and slowing earnings growth, have given way to the belief that the worst is behind the sector... As such it's time to snap up some bargains... What nonsense... Was the sector oversold from a short-term perspective at Friday's lows?... Sure... Could we continue to see some modest additional gains between now and year-end... Also, yes... But do the gains represent anything more than a corrective bounce?... Not likely... Why? Underlying technicals remain weak with bearish chart configurations dominating the landscape of every industry. No leadership... The leaders in each of the major tech groups have broken down... Note Seagate, Compaq, Dell, Oracle, Microsoft, Intel, Texas Instruments, 3Com, Applied Materials and Northern Telecom. Earnings growth expected to slow due to weakening demand in Asia. Domestic growth also put into question by news out of Oracle, 3M and Cabletron. PC sales expected to slow. Capital spending by corporate America could slow if U.S. economy dragged down by Asian contagion. Valuations remain high (in general). In other words, buyer beware.>>

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (12213)	12/23/1997 2:46:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

So, you are a self-proclaimed contrarian and think that with so much pessimism the stocks can only go up! Call me Mr. Gloom and Doom, but I have some concerns/questions: 1. True. Briefing.com is negative and every tom, dick and Creamer is negative on stocks. -g- Then how come the market hasn't fallen off the bed, you ask. I would say partly due to stupidity and partly due to the inexperienced bears shorting stocks all over the place at or near short-term bottoms. The experienced traders know how to milk the inexperienced shorts. 2. So, you already bought with the expectations of Santa rally and the January effect. And, now you expect others to buy and bail-you out? Not by the hair of my chinny chin chin. -g- BTW, Regarding the January effect, an expert in his teens, now in his twenties, gave pretty lengthy explanation last year. In theory, he is right more or less. However, after seeing his article(s) in Dec 96, I really thought that was the end of the January effect. -g- As shameless as I am, I want you to know that this time the January effect will perhaps be no longer than a couple of days. 3. What about Asia? What about valuations? What wbout future earnings? Above all 4. What about the fact that the bear begins when people start selling before which they have to have a change in opinion? -Mohan

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (12213)	12/23/1997 3:00:00 PM
From: Jonathan Wang	Respond to of 18056

Can anyone tell me how much AMAT and LRCX earning has been revising down since the turmoil of ASIA. Yuor response is appreciated. Thank you.

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (12213)	12/23/1997 3:11:00 PM
From: Amots	Respond to of 18056

Mohan: <<With such lousy fundamentals, why is Lam still so richly valued (now at 29 7/8, up 7/8 for the day)>> So I can get LMQNE cheaper! <vbg> Amots

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (12213)	12/23/1997 6:33:00 PM
From: x70sxn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18056

Mohanji: I am no expert on Lam Research. Having said that, I like to throw some borrowed words from janta on the west coast. Their financial advisors are recommending them. Oversold conditions. They feel that the previous standards of .35microns will be outdated shortly and the .25 will be a big thing (intc is already in it] Here is the birds eye view percpective... Fundamentally, the whole world situation is now in transition. 1. IMF Helping the currencies to stabalize will help the economies grow. When they grow and come into the same business as LAMs and AMATs, you know the rest about the competitions. 2. If they donot do that, instead go and help the big institutions to make money (18%-is it?] then I am sure the US Govt will be able to balance budgets but the companies will lose the market and their share. So, this is a double edge sword kinda case. Now the value part Per-Share Data Book Value (mrq) $17.07 Sales (ttm) $31.21 Cash (mrq) $12.49 Valuation Ratios Price/Book (mrq) 1.50 Price/Sales (ttm) 0.82 The numbers says it all. For long term into 2000 this will be a good one to own and ofcourse there are somany others too. And any way if u r short u still have some time to cover...the price rise today is on less than the average volume. U know those people wanted the traditional christmas rally... Hey! there is nothing wrong in trying...is it? Did some body say 'Black Christmas' Shrini [Just Super BK me!!!]