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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: McNabb Brothers who wrote (8797)	12/23/1997 2:40:00 PM
From: W. Clinton Terry	Respond to of 9285

I have been watching the volume on AOL. Today's decline is on very slow volume, especially during the past couple of hours. During the third hour today, it traded only 101K. I am looking for a good entry to short, but am fearful that this low volume may represent a trap for the unwary as the stock may have some more upward momentum. I suppose from your perspective, it does not matter because you will simply buy more on the way up. Just thought I would pass this volume information along to you for what it is worth. Clinton

To: McNabb Brothers who wrote (8797)	12/23/1997 3:14:00 PM
From: NYBellBoy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

Notice to all from Briefing.com: INTERNET STOCKS: Would it come as a surprise if I told you that Internet stocks have been the champions of the recently tumultuous market. Names such as America Online (AOL 89 1/4 -3/4) have been driven to 52-week highs by the bullish comments of Wall Street analysts: Dec. 3, Prudential starts with a "buy" and a 12-month target of $91; Dec 5, both Smith Barney and Raymond James initiate coverage with "buy" ratings and 12-month price targets of $100 and $110, respectively. Recognizing the company's low-exposure to Asia and superb growth rates, investors have been looking to buy AOL shares on every dip. The search engines, however, have not had the benefit of recent analysts recommendations. Yet, Yahoo! (YHOO 66 7/16 +2) is setting a new 52-week high today, even though the stock is trading at 190x analysts' FY98 estimate and sporting a price-to-sales ratio (trailing twelve months) of 57.66, a full 1238% above the average P/S ratio for the sector. Other up-and-comers include Lycos (LCOS 38 1/2 +3/8), 52-week high $42 and Excite (XCIT 27 +1), 52-week high $35. You can bet that a much of the rebound in the search-engines has been caused by short-covering, as investors got frustrated by the sectors resiliency during the sell-off in tech and the strength of the overall market in the face of the Asian financial crisis. The $6 million question is: How long can these stocks hold up? Well, 1997 has taught us that these stocks have no trouble breathing at lofty heights. However, on the first sign that the market is beginning to crack, I would be adding my name to the list of investors/traders looking to make a buck in this sector on the short side, particularly in a 2nd-tier name like Lycos. 13:45 ET ****** Best wishes to all, BellBoy

To: McNabb Brothers who wrote (8797)	12/23/1997 6:19:00 PM
From: Jon Tara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

Hank, I tried to short AOL again today. I'm afraid I am going to need another broker to be able to short it. I had no luck with Datek again. There was no excuse this morning, with upticks all over the place. Datek was accepting my orders and showing them as active, but was not representing them to the market. The offer was shown above my offer repeatedly. I tried again this afternoon, but I was at working and basically shooting blind, as Datek's NYSE quotes don't have a tick indicator. (At home, I use Townsend Analytics for streaming quotes, and they have a tick indicator of course.) I should have had AOL short at 90 or higher this morning. Datek does work out well for shorting NASDAQ stocks, as you can use their high success rate at spliting the spread in combination with the rule that lets you short at any time if your limit is above the bid.