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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lucretius who wrote (11192)	12/23/1997 4:57:00 PM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Lucretius, Most of what you've posted is conjecture and opinion, but interesting opinion nonetheless. I had hoped that you had some specific information from which you predicted a 20% stock value decline over 1 week. Given the market conditions (every company is guilty until proven innocent) do you really believe that the market has dialed in Cisco beating estimates? Do you really believe that? I think that if CSCO simply makes the number the stock holds in the mid-50's. If they beat it, given the other networkers, money will flow into CSCO as it will be a further indication that CSCO is the Intel of networking and is gaining market share. Beating the number by 5 cents in the face of the Asian turmoil could be HUGE. Sure, CSCO only has 7% direct Asian exposure, but the people who buy from CSCO have much, much more. REALLY? How do you know this? If their business slows, their rate of capital expenditures will slow thus causing CSCO's business to slow. Even if this proves to be totally inaccurate. The mkt suspects this and the stock will be driven lower becasue of fear. This comment was the one interesting point you made and does require careful consideration. I guess we'd have to look at Cisco's key customers and their exposure to Asia to get a real indication as to how it will effect CSCO. Many of Cisco's customers are carriers, ISP, European businesses, and Latin America businesses. I'm not sure what the total exposure would be but I think in the case of domestic carriers and ISP's the impact should be next to nothing. Again, this is just my opinion and I too have nothing to back it up with but I do think that if indeed Cisco beats their numbers in Feb. (and we see whisper numbers of them doing so in Jan.) that the shorts will need to cover and this will push the price even higher - past 60. Sorry, I'm still long! Gary