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To: Gus who wrote (1904)	12/23/1997 10:45:00 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

To All; Its midday on Christmas Eve here in K.L. and I am off to run some last minute errands. Upon returning my wife and I will start cooking. (Have already baked about 6 dozen cookies.) Before I left the thread for the holiday I just wanted to wish you all the Very Best Christmas and a Prosperous New Year (to us all I hope). Best, Stitch

To: Gus who wrote (1904)	12/24/1997 10:20:00 AM
From: Pierre-X	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9256

Re: Pierre's Theory of Cycles To: ALL Hello to all, I wish everyone the absolute best for the holidays. I've just finished the first draft of a fairly large piece about cyclical technology industries in general and DRAM and HDDs in particular. users.deltanet.com In this article I discuss: * Why these companies boom and bust * The pitfalls of industry forecasts * Elasticities of supply and demand * How you too can ride cycles for fun and profit * Formal Theory of Cycles * Examples from history * Dangers posed by competing technologies * Perpetual advance of technology * and much more! Would love to get your feedback. PX

To: Gus who wrote (1904)	12/24/1997 5:52:00 PM
From: Sheba	Respond to of 9256

Gus, I finally read the news announcement in Science concerning the blue solid state laser. The company, Nichia, claims that they will have commercially available lasers for fall 1998. However, it's tough to determine all the details since the real article will be in Jpn. J. Applied Physics, currently in press. Because of the lack of details, it is difficult to be sure that this is really "ready for primetime". The laser has an estimated lifetime of 10,000 hours at 20 C (68 fahrenheit). Most people do not sit at a computer in a 68 F room, even assuming that the laser diode isn't heating up during use. Actually, later in the announcement, the author (G. Fasol) states that it's "close to the lifetime needed for commercial application." The only other lifetime information was that the laser diode lasted 700 hours at 60 C and 1000 hours at 50 C, which was used for estimating the 10,000 hour lifetime at 20 C. I was wondering, what is the lifetime at 30 or 40 C? The author also stated that there would be additional investigation into more sophisticated GaN substrate engineering, hopefully to improve the lifetime. (That's the general problem, too many defects in the GaN layer.) Like I said, there really isn't sufficient detail to determine the current commercial applications.