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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Fiscally Conservative who wrote (17370)11/28/2015 5:18:23 PM
From: John Pitera6 Recommendations

Recommended By
Fiscally Conservative
George Statham
isopatch
marcos
roguedolphin

and 1 more member

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421
 
Hi Entitlement..... Looking forward to what OX and others think..... just a few thoughts regarding your question regarding the Gold bear Market.

Trends in force tend to stay in force...... We have seen US equities going up and going up since Early March of 2009

it was the .618 retracement of the entire bull market from August of 1982 that started at DJIA 777
Message 25473946

2) ever since 2008 and 2009 we have been working off global overcapacity in about 80% of the industries worldwide.

3) As someone who had a series 31 license (along with a Series 7.... Series 66 and Insurance licenses) with Morgan Stanley to sell Managed Commodity Futures back in 2004 -2005... a key feature was that Commodities were historically correlated with stocks, bonds and other assets classes.... when the Great Financial Crisis/Crash occurred in 2008.... we found that all asset classes where sold as Art Cashin has pointed out repeatedly . When you can not sell what you want you sell anything that you can.

4) Jimmy Rodgers and several others have commented that historically commodity bull markets last for about 10 years and then the overcapacity that has developed needs a multiyear workout/ rationalization of productive capacity.

Message 14191712

One Final thought on those books.

Jimmy Rodgers, who set out with George Soros as the other
partner and established the ultra famous Quantum fund in
1973 had one of the most compelling insights of anyone in
his interview. His interview was conducted in 1987 or 1988
and He pointed out that the Precious Metals
Bull market of the 1970's generated so many new mines
and
so much new production that this production would
keep Gold in a bear market due to over supply through
the mid to late 1990's was absolutely on the mark
.

The man is another one of the geniuses you will meet in
these books.


5) The Key Global Central Banks are most likely working to keep prices subdued if not outright under pressure.

6) We are seeing significant global deflation... which is not obvious to us as we are not living with the multitude of currencies that are really depreciating.....

7) Good Bloomberg article
bloomberg.com

Half of the gold coming from mines may not be viable at current prices, underscoring the industry’s need for consolidation and output cuts, according to the best-performing producer of the metal in the past decade.

“The more we continue to produce unprofitable gold, the more pressure we put on the gold price,” Randgold Resources Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Mark Bristow said in an interview in Toronto on Friday. “In the medium term, it’s a very bullish outlook for the gold industry. The question is, how long are we going to supply it with unprofitable gold?”

Gold fell to a five-year low on Friday as a rising dollar and speculation that U.S. policy makers will boost interest rates next month curbed the appeal of bullion as a store of value. While industrial metal producers have promised output cuts, “we don’t have that psyche in the gold industry, we just send it off our mine and somebody buys it,” Bristow said.

Gold miners buffeted by the drop in prices are shortening the life of mines by focusing only on the best quality ore, a practice known as high grading, which will restrict future output and support higher prices, according to Bristow. He said in a presentation to bankers in Toronto that the industry life span is down to about five years because companies have been aggressively high grading at the expense of future production.

“The industry has moved away from looking at optimal life of mines because everyone is trying to demonstrate short-term delivery,” he said in the interview after the presentation. “Where is all this value that people promised in the gold industry? It’s not there.”

Traditionally, the industry would address this through “survival” mergers, Bristow said.

Bristow said earlier this month that Randgold continues to look for projects to buy, but has been frustrated by companies excessively pricing assets. In Friday’s interview, he said Randgold approached two parties this year about purchasing assets, but walked away because the prices were too high.

London-listed Randgold’s 10-year annualized return of 19 percent is the best performance among major producers tracked by Bloomberg.

Gold futures for February delivery declined 1.3 percent to settle at $1,056.20 an ounce on the Comex in New York. Earlier, the price fell to $1,051.60, the lowest since February 2010.



Longer term I am bullish on the Precious Metals complex ..... I'm sure we are seeing the so called "Composite Operators" accumulating long positions.

Message 30331088
this silver chart shows basing action...



The 25 year montly chart of Silver has it retracing all the way back to it's 200 week Moving Average...... we will look back on this in several years and say ..." yep it was a pretty good time to be socking Silver away for a 3, 5 , 10 year time horizon.

John



To: Fiscally Conservative who wrote (17370)11/29/2015 12:34:04 AM
From: John Pitera6 Recommendations

Recommended By
3bar
isopatch
mary-ally-smith
pogbull
roguedolphin

and 1 more member

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421
 
Long Term Silver Chart look very bullish.... on a 45 year Monthly basis we have watched Silver come back to it's .764 retracement, which also coincides with the very powerful 200 Month Moving Average... and we even have a Wyckoff Automatic Rally to the 14.93 area after the complete collapse to the $4.78 level back in the early 1980's....... This is the area where we will almost inevitably see the big long term money masters slowly accumulate........ As a trade to make money....... it's beyond the patience level of well over 90% of the trading public ..

But it's a very impressive long term set up....... and on a Macro positioning basis..... it appears to be a home run...given ...lots and lots of time to unfold. Historically Silver has often been the first precious metal to bottom.



The Monthly Gold chart has taken out it's .618 retracement to the downside and I could see prices decline to $996 or even back to the .618 of the move from $253 to $1923 which would be $892 level and giving it several months to transpire... we could see the 200 Month Moving Average advance to converge at that $892 level

. Platinum and Palladium have been showing quite a bit of relative weakness going back to the 2008 crash.



after RogueDolphin was pointing out the weakness in Platinum a couple of months ago it has turned out that a long Gold:Plat spread trade has been in a pretty nice dependable channel....and as Bruce Kovner has stated those markets and trades that are less watched often trend better and yield better trading results.



John



To: Fiscally Conservative who wrote (17370)11/30/2015 10:52:11 AM
From: The Ox  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421
 
My "perfect storm" comment for gold seems a fair statement. The post which contained the comments by the Randgold CEO is probably a very trust worthy view.

As to comparing the action in the Russell 2000 vs. gold, that's a tough one. I would say that even though the R2000 has been outperforming gold, it's not exactly setting the world on fire with it's performance!