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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Schling who wrote (4103)	12/23/1997 8:16:00 PM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

RE: "Some good long-term stocks like AMAT and PRIA still have plenty of downside left IMHO, because they went totally off the radar screen this summer and still trade above (!!!) their average price-to-sales and price-to-book ratios." Can you provide a URL leading to a site that provides historic price-to-sales and price-to-book ratios? It would be nice to find a table similar to that included in Value Line. Thanks, I2

To: Robert Schling who wrote (4103)	12/23/1997 8:18:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Robert, Re::Most "experts" are forecasting S&P earnings growth of less than 10%. Most of the stocks in the equipment sector are 1)not in the S&P and 2)will see substatially better average growth over the next 2-3 years than 10% ReSome good long-term stocks like AMAT and PRIA still have plenty of downside left IMHO, because they went totally off the radar screen this summer and still trade above (!!!) their average price-to-sales and price-to-book ratios Dave Dhillon from the AMAT thread called AMAT's IR earlier this week and asked a few questions. Most noticable were the fact that AMAT said they were sticking to BOTH their Q1 and FY98 eps forecasts. Secondly, they said to date they have had no order cancellations. Assuming this is the case and the Street realizes it anytime soon, AMAT will not be trading anywhere near the current range IMHO. BTW, here are some #'s for AMAT for everyone saying it is nowhere near bottom. KIM that most of these bottoms occurred when there was panic that there would be no earnings whatsoever because of a downturn. Currently that is not the case, so IMO we shouldn't even approach the trough levels. AMAT 5-yr avg. 1996 trough 1997 peak Current level PSR 2.1 1.0 4.9 2.6 P/B 4.2 1.9 6.5 4.0 P/FY98 - 7.4 25.0 11.6 (First Call) Just my .02, but grab 'em while you can. Brian

To: Robert Schling who wrote (4103)	12/23/1997 8:21:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

AMAT 5-yr avg. 1996 trough 1997 peak Current level PSR 2.1 1.0 4.9 2.6 P/B 4.2 1.9 6.5 4.0 P/FY98 - 7.4 25.0 11.6 (First Call) Sorry, but I had to repost them in a fixed font form.

To: Robert Schling who wrote (4103)	12/24/1997 4:50:00 PM
From: Trader X	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Looking ahead for a "bottom"--AMAT as a proxy. I decided to use the AMAT chart as a proxy for the semi equip group, since it's the largest of them, and stands to do well when a psychological bottom is put in finally, based on their firm fundamentals. the url of four year chart: cris.com it appears that the recent lows have hit the bottom of a trend channel, but the yellow channels that the stock price is in now suggests the price could fall to the low 20s, near 22, where the bottom yellow channel intersects the black price support level. I hold more regard for price areas where different lines of trend and suport intersect, and the timeline appears to bring that point into focus in the coming 2-4 months. That would lend credence to the idea that the upcoming earnings season in January/February could bring on the final onslaught of selling that would form a bottom. -Kevin