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Strategies & Market Trends : Let's Make REAL MONEY (Big, long-term cap. gains) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don S.Boller who wrote (76)	12/23/1997 8:06:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 135

Don, that is more or less what I have been saying on the Golddiger thread for a year. They missed only one of my points, re: dividends, the dividend rate reported is at least $100 Billion short of the true mark, this because of massive stock buy backs by corporations that are nothing but a tax free dividend to existing share holders. GE just announced an increase of their buy back to $17 Billions, and MRK, IBM and many others have billions in buy back porograms. The conclusion is that a. AG is keeping interest rates artificially high and b. the stock market is not as overvalued as the bear would want us to believe. c. The decline in growth rate of profits coupled with the rim malaise will bring us a minibear, which as you know I am saying will bottom at around 6200 or so, and at that price stocks will be a veritable bargain (particularly if my long bond scenario of 5.5% or less by June next year comes to pass). Another falacy that Worth decline to mention is the "aweful" state of our debt. If the US was a business it would have a debt to asset ratio of less than .25, much better than many of our prime corporations. What people fail to understand that we have the best infrastrucutre in the world, that causes our transportation costs to be lower and our population to be more efficient. The number of airports, miles of highways military infrastructure and arsenal, forests,land natural resources, per capita are all assets that never show on the US balance sheet, but they are there. When we buy a B-52 that is in service for 40 years or so, we do not depreciate it over 40 years, we take a "write off" as soon as we buy it. The IRS certainly should put the Federal Government in jail fdor such transgressions. How many of our citizens have mortages that are three times their annual income (that is currently the lending standard in the industry), so what if the government has a total mortgage much less than one time the GDP? It is not perfect, but it is not Armagedon. Right now, However, I feel pretty good on the sidelines. Oh, few other accumulate candidates: BA, it is the undisputed leader in its industry and the fleet is quite old and furthermore once the Asian malaise they will be buying like hell. Zeev