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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: x70sxn who wrote (12261)	12/24/1997 7:46:00 AM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

Shrini, thanks for the heads-up on LRCX. I am aware of the bull-case for LRCX which, obviously, doesn't cut with me. Based on per share data (P/B, P/S) the stock doesn't look that expensive - agreed. However, it is a cyclical tech stock and a lot of their customers are hurting. IMF or not, their customers will not be able to spend at the same pace they did in the last few years. JMO. BTW, compare LRCX per share data to that of WFR and let me know what your think. In fact, WFR is trading ~18% below its book value and about 0.6 times sales. The bottom line is that their bottom line is in the red which is where LRCX is headed in a short-order. Perhaps onething that is working in LRCX favor is the relatively low float, a factor I souldn't have ignored. -Mohan

To: x70sxn who wrote (12261)	12/24/1997 10:53:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

Shrini: If you are looking at 2000 for LRCX you may be right, but the question is how will owners of the stock react if it goes under book value? I think that over the next six months there is a strong possibility that investments in semi equipment will come to a screetching halt for a quarter, that will spell blood all over the balance sheets of the semi equipment companies. LRCX is a great company, but they cannot manufacture profits from thin air. Once the over capacity in the semi equipment market is absorbed (by increased demand and closing of the inefficient players), then the move to .25 and .18 will once again take place. Hopefully, LRCX will be positioned with a product line for that epoch, right now, they are a little thin and AMAT is eating their lunch, the little that is left. Zeev