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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bura who wrote (13836)	12/24/1997 8:41:00 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

Re:Let's also remember that we are very early in the semiconductor cycle. They usually last at least 3 (and often up to 5) years. The previous cycle ended badly in 1996. That means that we are only in the first of many good years ahead. Coupled with the fact that 1997 was still a slow year overall, and that 1998 could be slowed by the Asian flu, this cycle could easily last until 2001 or 2002. That means that this current fire sale of AMAT will probably look silly in a year or two. Bura, Agree w/ your post 100%. The point most people miss is the fact that we just experienced a downturn in the equip market. Two back to back downturns w/ only a brief respite has never occurred unless I am mistaken. I believe in retrospect this will prove to be an anomaly. IMHO, placing bets on the equipment companies at these prices at this point in time is like being the "house" in Las Vegas; the odds are overwhelming that you will win big. Regards, Brian