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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: George Papadopoulos who wrote (19233)	12/24/1997 2:46:00 AM
From: Don Earl	Respond to of 42771

Hi George, (off topic) Thanks for the link. I found some real treasures there. I thought this was interesting www4.techstocks.com There was an article on the NASDAQ site about the GDP numbers. I can't seem to access the Business News section right now and it was a copyrighted article. About 2/3 of the way down there was a sort of obscure mention about US profits being revised upward from $8 billion to $19 billion because they hadn't counted "overseas operations" in the original estimates. What I'm seeing is a lot of US manufacturers building factories overseas where labor and expenses are cheep. It seems to be a common business practice whether it's car parts, disk drives, mens shirts, semis, whatever. The practice seems to be send the labor intensive stuff over there, import it back to do the high tech stuff here. In the case of component parts, the finished part is then sold to American companies in US dollars and exported to that companies factories for final assembly. The finished product is then imported back to the US for sale to consumers. The bottom line is that all the income is in US dollars and the majority of expenses are in devalued currency. The end result is higher profits with lower prices at the consumer level. With tight money foreign banks are calling in short term loans that are payable on demand causing foreign businesses to go bankrupt. US companies then buy up the loans for pennies on the dollar and forclose on the real property. All of a sudden there are a whole bunch of cheep low overhead factories just waiting for US companies to expand into. At the same time the foreign countries are forced into loosening trade restrictions if they want to be bailed out. I don't know if this is a reasonable alternative to Paul and Dwights' analysis. I'm an infant at trying to figure out this kind of situation. In 1929 US labor was cheep and plentiful and virtually all manufacturing was done at home. The end result of the crash was to make labor that much more cheep and plentiful. Since that has already been accomplished it doesn't make sense to crash the US economy. The US has evoloved into a very elite, high tech, highly skilled work force. Different economy than 1929. I don't know how the attack on Asian currencies was done, but I don't believe it "just happened". The whole thing seems too calculated and carefully orchestrated to be an accident. The "bear trap" theory makes more sense to me than a crash. I'm seeing a ton of short money going down at very low points on the charts and there seems to be a subtle shift in the slant of the business news the last few days. I'm real long in places. I sure hope I'm early instead of wrong. Regards, Don