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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric Klein who wrote (8817)	12/23/1997 11:49:00 PM
From: S Shaw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

Eric: I subscribe to his Overpriced Stock letter that strikes me as his tech letter strikes you. Based on his last year's performance, if he was a baseball player, he'd be headed back to the minors. Scott Shaw

To: Eric Klein who wrote (8817)	12/24/1997 2:05:00 AM
From: Carl H. Gotsch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

Eric, Amen regarding CTSL! I have lost more money on any one of half a dozen CTSL long recommendations than all my shorting missteps put together, including YAHOO! I would not recommend it to anyone, except for the interesting, in-depth technology write-ups that are a part of the letter. But as you note, Murphy has stuck his neck out now, big time. He is buying completely into a suggestion that Roger has made, namely, that we are going to go up before we go down, and has gone from 35% cash to 2% margin in his electronic model portfolio! IMHO, there is such enormous uncertainty in the market at the moment that I have a hard time believing that we are going to test highs in January, at least if the present climate continues. A lot of sidewise movement with substantial volatility would seem to be a more likely scenario. But I would be interested to know what you (and other members of the thread) are using as working hypotheses for the next couple of months? Regards, Carl

To: Eric Klein who wrote (8817)	12/24/1997 6:26:00 AM
From: Pancho Villa	Respond to of 9285

Eric: RE Michael Murphy (MM) and the California Tech Stock Letter. IMO MM is a smart guy who thinks he is smarter than he really is.IMO thinking you can outsmart the market is BERY BERY BERY dangerous. Look at what happened to another jerk,Vinik with Fidelity. Amazing what these guys would do with other's people money! I guess the good side is that he helped me to pull out of all fidelity mutual funds except for New Millenium. You can take a position long or short and hope it goes well but you must be ready to expect the worst (i.e., ready for a worst case scenario and then you will be happy if long term - not in a week or a couple of days - things start going your way). For example, if what I have got cooking for BFIT turns out my way. I will do BERY BERY BERY well on this sotck in 98. However, if it goes up $5 more I won't laugh but won't jump off the Tobin bridge either. Goinf back to MM I believe he is a bit (this is probably too mild) arrogant. He believes he can call markets tops, bottoms, time tech stoks. IMO he is full of BS in this regard. I have not subscribed to the letter but was burnt by his reco's several times: SYNX (check out a chart I got in at around 15 and dumped at 4) Also last spring I went long CSCO under 40? (forgot the details as I tend to forget not pleasant experiences. Then at the a conference he said they were gonna miss the quarter and that he would wait after the announcement to buy it as there was still a way to go down. I dumped CSCO and you know the end of the story. Another one, he used to say, at least until spring of 97 that CDMA technology (QCOM) would never make it. That he was always short QCOM. I guess he was wrong on that one too. I am gald I did not listen to him on that one. I have made a bundle on QCOM, getting in and out. Last time I sold I did at 68. Looking to buy closer to 40. These days, every time I have stuck my head out to go long I've had it (mt head) chopped off so I will be careful. I wonder what it takes for a guy to show some respect for the random nature of the stock market. IMO MM gets hit in the head over and over again and still talks with a confidence that is dangerous to investors. You wil do better reading SI and using your common sense and research to decide who/what is right for you. You see the danger is that we are lazy by nature and believe that some hot shot analyst can do the work for us. Well if you feel like burning your $$$$ that is fine. One problem with this guy (MM) and many others is that they think they can move stock prices so they defend their stock positions regardless of fundamentals. He was also promoting ROSS last spring at around 3. Don't know the company but I guess it is still around there. Bottom line, Probably a good idea to read MM's letter just as it is a good idea to read Cramer, not to follow what they do but to see what some people in the market are thinking short term (you may even get a few short ideas based on their longs!). Cramer is another interesting guy. I like the way he writes and he is a bit more humble but I think that he is starting to believe his piblication can lead the market. He may be right one day but then he is wrong the other. IMO he is in for a big surprise. Pancho