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To: Sdgla who wrote (909224)12/17/2015 8:16:29 PM
From: Wharf Rat  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1576265
 
November 2015: Earth's Warmest November and 2nd Warmest Month of Any Kind on Record

By: Jeff Masters , 6:23 PM GMT on December 17, 2015



November 2015 was Earth’s warmest November on record by a huge margin, according to data released by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on Thursday. November 2015 also had the second largest positive departure of temperature from average of any month among all 1631 months in the historical record that began in January 1880; only last month (October 2015) was more extreme. As shown in the table below, October and November 2015's 0.97°C and 0.99°C departures from the 20th Century average beat the next eight runners-up by an unusually large margin, underscoring how unusual and extreme the current surge in global temperatures is. NASA also rated November 2015 as the warmest November in the historical record. November 2015's warmth makes the year-to-date period (January - November) the warmest such period on record, according to both NOAA and NASA. November 2015 was the seventh consecutive month a monthly high temperature record has been set in NOAA's database, and the ninth month of the eleven months so far in 2015. The potent El Niño event in the Eastern Pacific that crossed the threshold into the "strong" category in early July continued to intensify into mid-November, and is now slowly waning. Strong El Niño events release a large amount of heat to the atmosphere, typically boosting global temperatures by at least 0.1°C. This extra bump in temperature, when combined with the long-term warming of the planet due to human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide, makes it virtually certain that 2015 will be Earth's second consecutive warmest year on record. The lingering warmth from El Niño is likely to make 2016 a good bet to exceed even 2015's warmth.

NOAA's top ten warmest global monthly departures from the 20th Century average:
1) 0.99°C, Oct 2015
2) 0.97°C, Nov 2015
3) 0.91°C, Sep 2015
4) 0.89°C, Mar 2015
5) 0.88°C, Feb 2015
5) 0.88°C, Jan 2007
7) 0.87°C, Aug 2015
7) 0.87°C, Jun 2015
9) 0.86°C, Feb 1998
10) 0.85°C, May 2015


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for November 2015, the warmest November for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Record warmth was observed over the Caribbean, most of equatorial and northeastern South America and parts of southeastern Asia. Parts of the Barents Sea in the Arctic and much of the Indian Ocean were also record warm. Image credit: National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) .


Figure 2. Departure of the global surface temperature from average for the year-to-date period January - November, for all years from 1880 to 2015. This year is on pace to easily beat last year as the warmest year on record. Image credit: NOAA.

Global satellite-measured temperatures in November 2015 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest November readings in the 37-year record, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). This is the second consecutive month the UAH database has registered a record monthly high. The lowest 8 km of the atmosphere heats up dramatically in response to moderate to strong El Niño events, with a time lag of about six months.



New all-time national and territorial heat records set or tied in 2015
As of December 15, 2015, sixteen nations or territories tied or set all-time records for their hottest temperature in recorded history in 2015, and two (Israel and Cyprus) set all-time cold temperature records. For comparison, only two nations or territories set all-time heat records in 2014, and nine did in 2013. The most all-time national heat records held by any year is nineteen in 2010. Most nations do not maintain official databases of extreme temperature records, so the national temperature records reported here are in many cases not official. I use as my source for international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, one of the world's top climatologists, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt maintains a database of these national heat and cold records for 235 nations and territories on wunderground.com's extremes page.

Kudos also to Mr. Herrera for supplying the data for the "Notable global heat and cold marks set for November 2015" and "Major stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records in November 2015" sections of the post.

Bob Henson and I will appear on WU’s live show, “This Week in Weather”, at 5 p.m.ET/2 p.m. PT today (Thursday) as we highlight some of the major weather stories of the year. To watch, go to wunderground.com;

Jeff Masters

wunderground.com