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To: Brumar89 who wrote (909494)12/18/2015 6:50:28 PM
From: Brumar89  Respond to of 1575421
 
New Study Shows NOAA Overestimate US Warming By 50%

December 17, 2015

By Paul Homewood



https://fallmeeting.agu.org/2015/files/2015/12/Press-Release-NEW-STUDY-OF-NOAA-USHCN.pdf

A new paper has been published showing that bad siting of temperature stations has resulted in NOAA overestimating US warming trends by about 50% since 1979.

The study by Anthony Watts, Evan Jones, John Nielson-Gammon and John Christy has carefully identified a subset of 410 USHCN stations, that have not been moved, had equipment changes, or changes in time of observations, and thus require no “adjustments” to their temperature record to account for these problems. From within this subset, the trend for high quality sites has been compared with the rest.

The Press Release gives the details:

SAN FRANCISO, CA – A new study about the surface temperature record presented at the 2015 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union suggests that the 30-year trend of temperatures for the Continental United States (CONUS) since 1979 are about two thirds as strong as officially NOAA temperature trends.


Using NOAA’s U.S. Historical Climatology Network, which comprises 1218 weather stations in the CONUS, the researchers were able to identify a 410 station subset of “unperturbed” stations that have not been moved, had equipment changes, or changes in time of observations, and thus require no “adjustments” to their temperature record to account for these problems. The study focuses on finding trend differences between well sited and poorly sited weather stations, based on a WMO approved metric Leroy (2010)1 for classification and assessment of the quality of the measurements based on proximity to artificial heat sources and heat sinks which affect temperature measurement. An example is shown in Figure 2 below, showing the NOAA USHCN temperature sensor for Ardmore, OK.



Figure 2 – USHCN Temperature sensor located on street corner in Ardmore, OK in full viewshed of multiple heatsinks.



Following up on a paper published by the authors in 2010, Analysis of the impacts of station exposure on the U.S. Historical Climatology Network temperatures and temperature trends2 which concluded:



Temperature trend estimates vary according to site classification, with poor siting leading to an overestimate of minimum temperature trends and an underestimate of maximum temperature trends, resulting in particular in a substantial difference in estimates of the diurnal temperature range trends



…this new study is presented at AGU session A43G-0396 on Thursday Dec. 17th at 13:40PST and is titled Comparison of Temperature Trends Using an Unperturbed Subset of The U.S. Historical Climatology Network


A 410-station subset of U.S. Historical Climatology Network (version 2.5) stations is identified that experienced no changes in time of observation or station moves during the 1979-2008 period. These stations are classified based on proximity to artificial surfaces, buildings, and other such objects with unnatural thermal mass using guidelines established by Leroy (2010)(1) . The United States temperature trends estimated from the relatively few stations in the classes with minimal artificial impact are found to be collectively about 2/3 as large as US trends estimated in the classes with greater expected artificial impact. The trend differences are largest for minimum temperatures and are statistically significant even at the regional scale and across different types of instrumentation and degrees of urbanization. The homogeneity adjustments applied by the National Centers for Environmental Information (formerly the National Climatic Data Center) greatly reduce those differences but produce trends that are more consistent with the stations with greater expected artificial impact. Trend differences are not found during the 1999- 2008 sub-period of relatively stable temperatures, suggesting that the observed differences are caused by a physical mechanism that is directly or indirectly caused by changing temperatures.


Key findings:


1. Comprehensive and detailed evaluation of station metadata, on-site station photography, satellite and aerial imaging, street level Google Earth imagery, and curator interviews have yielded a well-distributed 410 station subset of the 1218 station USHCN network that is unperturbed by Time of Observation changes, station moves, or rating changes, and a complete or mostly complete 30-year dataset. It must be emphasized that the perturbed stations dropped from the USHCN set show significantly lower trends than those retained in the sample, both for well and poorly sited station sets.

2. Bias at the microsite level (the immediate environment of the sensor) in the unperturbed subset of USHCN stations has a significant effect on the mean temperature (Tmean) trend. Well sited stations show significantly less warming from 1979 – 2008. These differences are significant in Tmean, and most pronounced in the minimum temperature data (Tmin). (Figure 3 and Table 1)

3. Equipment bias (CRS v. MMTS stations) in the unperturbed subset of USHCN stations has a significant effect on the mean temperature (Tmean) trend when CRS stations are compared with MMTS stations. MMTS stations show significantly less warming than CRS stations from 1979 – 2008. (Table 1) These differences are significant in Tmean (even after upward adjustment for MMTS conversion) and most pronounced in the maximum temperature data (Tmax).

4. The 30-year Tmean temperature trend of unperturbed, well sited stations is significantly lower than the Tmean temperature trend of NOAA/NCDC official adjusted homogenized surface temperature record for all 1218 USHCN stations.

5. We believe the NOAA/NCDC homogenization adjustment causes well sited stations to be adjusted upwards to match the trends of poorly sited stations.

6. The data suggests that the divergence between well and poorly sited stations is gradual, not a result of spurious step change due to poor metadata.

The study is authored by Anthony Watts and Evan Jones of surfacestations.org , John Nielsen-Gammon of Texas A&M , John R. Christy of the University of Alabama, Huntsville and represents years of work in studying the quality of the temperature measurement system of the United States.
Lead author Anthony Watts said of the study: “The majority of weather stations used by NOAA to detect climate change temperature signal have been compromised by encroachment of artificial surfaces like concrete, asphalt, and heat sources like air conditioner exhausts. This study demonstrates conclusively that this issue affects temperature trend and that NOAA’s methods are not correcting for this problem, resulting in an inflated temperature trend. It suggests that the trend for U.S. temperature will need to be corrected.” He added: “We also see evidence of this same sort of siting problem around the world at many other official weather stations, suggesting that the same upward bias on trend also manifests itself in the global temperature record”.

The full AGU presentation can be downloaded here:

https://goo.gl/7NcvT2


[1] Leroy, M. (2010): Siting Classification for Surface Observing Stations on Land, Climate, and Upper-air Observations JMA/WMO Workshop on Quality Management in Surface, Tokyo, Japan, 27-30 July 2010
[2] Fall et al. (2010) Analysis of the impacts of station exposure on the U.S. Historical Climatology Network temperatures and temperature trends https://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/r-367.pdf




Congratulations to Anthony and Evan for putting so much effort into this important project. What is self evident is that the effect of bad siting and urbanisation will be much greater still if the analysis is extended back to the 1930’s.

Worse still, there are so many poorly sited stations that homogenisation is working to adjust the good ones to the bad, and not the other way round.

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/12/17/new-study-shows-noaa-overestimate-us-warming-by-50/



To: Brumar89 who wrote (909494)12/18/2015 6:57:44 PM
From: Brumar89  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1575421
 
Paris Unravelling Already
December 17, 2015

By Paul Homewood



It has not taken long to unravel!!

1) Britain follows Paris deal with cuts to green subsidies Britain cut more renewable energy subsidies on Thursday, putting jobs at risk and drawing criticism for losing credibility in tackling climate change, a week after the landmark deal in Paris.

Britain’s Conservative government has been reining in spending on all renewables subsidies since it took power in May, saying the cost of technology has come down sharply and subsidies should reflect that.

Thursday’s cuts came a day after it allowed the use of fracking to extract shale gas below national parks and protected areas and as the licenses were awarded for shale oil and gas extraction.

"Ministers happily take credit for being climate champions on an international stage while flagrantly undermining the renewable industry here at home," said Green MP Caroline Lucas.

Britain has made good progress in making electricity greener, with low-carbon energy accounting for a record 39 percent of electricity generation last year, Amber Rudd, Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, said in a written statement to Parliament on Thursday.

The government produced its own impact assessment on the changes showing they could result in the loss of between 9,700 and 18,700 solar jobs.

"In a world that has just committed to strengthened climate action in Paris and which sees solar as the future, the UK government needs to get behind the British solar industry," Paul Barwell, the head of Britain’s Solar Trade Association, said in a statement.

A parliamentary committee this week warned that Britain could face the same kind of downturn in the solar industry which has affected Spain and Italy – which also made significant cuts to renewables subsides.

ROOFTOP SOLAR

Britain has cut the tariff for domestic-scale solar up to 10 kilowatts in capacity, such as rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) installations, to 4.39 pence per kilowatt hour.

Under the old tariffs, solar power up to 4 kilowatts in capacity was paid at 12.47 pence per kilowatt hour and for 4-50 kilowatts it was 11.30 pence.

It had proposed much steeper cut to 1.63 p/KWh in consultation in August, but the solar industry lobbied hard for a more gradual decline.

The government also capped spending on the Feed-in-Tariff (FiT) scheme at a maximum 100 million pounds ($149 million) a year for new installations from February next year to April 2019.

Under that scheme, households, businesses or farms which install low-carbon energy sources such as solar panels or small wind turbines are paid for the electricity they generate and unused energy can be sold to electricity suppliers.

Renewable energy companies said the cuts were less drastic than originally proposed but could would still lead to much less deployment of solar energy.

"The new measures … still mean that installing solar panels will no longer be attractive to British home-owners," said Juliet Davenport, chief executive of Good Energy, one of the largest feed-in-tariff administrators in Britain.

In Thursday’s announcement, the government also confirmed it would close another of its subsidy schemes, the Renewable Obligation, two years earlier than planned to new solar PV capacity of 5 megawatts and below from next April.

It said it would introduce a grace period for those developers who made financial commitments on or before July 22 this year and those who experience delays beyond their control in connecting to the electricity grid.

Thursday’s changes would reduce an overspend by 500 to 600 million pounds, the government said

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-3363890/Britain-follows-Paris-deal-cuts-green-subsidies.html

2) UK to allow shale gas fracking beneath national parks MPs on Wednesday voted in favour of the use of fracking to extract shale gas under national parks, weakening a decision against fracking in national parks made earlier this year and giving shale gas explorers access to more resources.

Britain is estimated to have substantial amounts of gas trapped in underground shale rocks and Prime Minister Cameron has pledged to go all-out to extract these reserves, to help offset declining North Sea oil and gas output.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-shale-policy-idUKKBN0TZ28420151216

3) Greenland May Seek UN Climate Deal Opt-Out Amid Emissions Goal The ink hasn’t yet dried on the UN climate accord and one of the territories most at risk from global warning [surely this is a joke?] is already demanding an opt-out.

“We still have the option of making a territorial opt-out to COP21," Kim Kielsen, the prime minister of Greenland, said during a visit to Copenhagen on Monday. "We have an emissions quota of 650,000 tonnes of CO2, which is the same as a single coal-fired power plant in Denmark, or a minor Danish city."

Kielsen oversees a self-governing territory within the Kingdom of Denmark. With a size roughly that of Mexico and a population that’s smaller than the Cayman Islands’, Greenland is the least densely populated country in the world. More than 22,000 people live in the capital Nuuk, while the remaining 34,000 are dispersed over an area of 2.2 million square kilometers.

As a result, the most common way for locals to traverse its icy expanses is via highly polluting planes.

"We want to solve that issue as we have considerably larger geographical distances to cover,” Kielsen said after a meeting with Danish Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen and their colleague from the Faroe Islands, another autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark.

Rasmussen said Denmark would ratify the climate accord and allow Greenland and the Faroe Islands to make their own decision.

"We fought to secure a deal that accommodated the interests and positions of the indigenous peoples, which wasn’t achieved in full," Rasmussen said of the accord clinched in Paris at the weekend. "But I believe that we share a view that’s fundamentally a good deal.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-14/greenland-may-seek-un-climate-deal-opt-out-amid-emissions-goal

4) Japan, South Korea Stick To Coal Policies Despite Paris Climate Deal

Less than a week since signing the global climate deal in Paris, Japan and South Korea are pressing ahead with plans to open scores of new coal-fired power plants, casting doubt on the strength of their commitment to cutting CO2 emissions.

Even as many of the world’s rich nations seek to phase out the use of coal, Asia’s two most developed economies are burning more than ever and plan to add at least 60 new coal-fired power plants over the next 10 years.

Officials at both countries’ energy ministries said those plans have not changed.

Japan, in particular, has been criticized for its lack of ambition — its 18 percent target for emissions cuts from 1990 to 2030 is less than half of Europe’s — and questions have been raised about its ability to deliver, since the target relies on atomic energy, which is very unpopular after the 2011 disaster at the Fukushima nuclear plant.

“It will not be easy to change the dynamic for domestic coal use, but I think Japan cannot continue ignoring this,” said Kimiko Hirata, international director at Kiko Network, a Japanese NGO that lobbies for measures to combat climate change.

“Eventually Japanese businesses will start recognizing the meaning of emissions neutrality and the rapid shift to renewables in other countries and start responding,” said Hirata, who attended the Paris negotiations.

Analysts say Japan and South Korea could reduce carbon emissions by much more than they pledged in Paris.

“The focus in Asia has been more on China and India, so we haven’t seen much attempt to put pressure on Japan and South Korea yet. But I imagine pressure will start to increase,” said senior analyst Georgina Hayden at BMI Research, a unit of ratings agency Fitch Group.

South Korea did scrap plans for four coal-fired power plants as part of its pledge to the Paris summit, but 20 new plants are still planned by 2021.

In Japan, 41 new coal-fired power plants are planned over the next decade, and taxes favor imports of coal over cleaner-burning natural gas.

In South Korea, tax on imported coal for power generation was raised in July, but is still only just over a third of the import tax on natural gas.

Coal-fired power plants there currently run at about 80 percent of capacity, compared with 35-40 percent for gas plants, according to calculations based on data from Korea Electric Power Corp. (KEPCO), the country’s largest power utility.

When asked if the Paris agreement could lead the Korean government to reduce the planned number of coal-fired plants, an energy ministry spokesman declined comment, but a ministry official with direct knowledge of the matter said on condition of anonymity that there was no change in the offing.

KEPCO declined comment.

Japan’s Environment Ministry also declined comment, but an official said, anonymously, that the Paris climate deal would have no impact on the ministry’s assessments of coal plants.

Japan’s Electric Power Development Co. Ltd., the country’s top thermal coal user, said the Paris deal would have no impact on its coal plans.

“Our stance on new coal plants is unchanged,” a spokesman said, adding that emissions would be cut as aging coal plants were replaced by new ones using the latest technology.

Mutsuyoshi Nishimura, a former climate negotiator for Japan, said Japanese industry and the government had been caught napping by the Paris agreement and were “awfully reluctant to visualize the coming of the ‘non-fossil world.’ “

“They were too caught up in the belief that industrialization and economic growth would entail such huge CO2 emissions in developing countries that China, India etc. would oppose any notion of decarbonization,” he said.

To be sure, China uses vastly more coal and has nearly a thousand more such plants in various stages of planning and construction.

But it has also recently reformed its gas price system to encourage a switch away from coal.

“We haven’t seen that kind of commitment from Japan or South Korea yet,” said BMI’s Hayden.

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/12/16/national/science-health/japan-south-korea-stick-coal-plant-policies-despite-global-climate-deal/#.VnLm_llnH7z

5) India Says Paris Climate Deal Won’t Affect Plans To Double Coal Output

India still plans to double coal output by 2020 and rely on the resource for decades afterwards, a senior official said on Monday, days after rich and poor countries agreed in Paris to curb carbon emissions that cause global warming.

India, the world’s third-largest carbon emitter, is dependent on coal for about two-thirds of its energy needs and has pledged to mine more of the fuel to power its resource-hungry economy while also promising to increase clean energy generation.

“The environment is non-negotiable and we are extremely careful about it,” Anil Swarup, the top bureaucrat in the coal ministry, told Reuters. “(But) our dependence on coal will continue. There are no other alternatives available.”

While India has plans to add 30 times more solar-powered generation capacity by 2022, there were limitations to clean energy and coal would remain the most efficient energy source for decades, he said.

Minister for power, coal and renewable energy, Piyush Goyal, said India’s contribution to global greenhouse gases emissions was just 2.5% with 17% of the world’s population, while developed countries contributed a fifth of emissions with just 5% of the world’s population.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/14/india-says-paris-climate-deal-wont-affect-plans-to-double-coal-output

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/12/17/paris-unravelling-already/



To: Brumar89 who wrote (909494)12/18/2015 8:16:09 PM
From: Wharf Rat  Respond to of 1575421
 
the back-up plan; re-open Mountain Pass.

Molycorp Inc., the Greenwood Village-based miner that filed for bankruptcy earlier this year, is suspending production at its Mountain Pass rare-earths facility, company officials announced Wednesday.

Citing drops in prices for rare earth minerals, Molycorp officials said they were transitioning the California facility to "care and maintenance" mode no later than Oct. 20, 2015.

denverpost.com

Plan C

Canada wants 20% of global rare earth market by 2018
mining.com