Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: danderso who wrote (108)	12/24/1997 11:49:00 AM
From: DD™	Respond to of 9980

From Briefing.com.. briefing.com "South Korea: In response to concerns about liquidity and near-term instability in the financial markets, the group of 7 (G-7) major industrial countries said today that they would provide $7 billion to South Korea in January, ahead of original schedule to address short-term problems. The IMF also said it would provide $2 billion in funds by December 30. Total planned international bailout is currently at $57 billion, compared to $15 billion Mexico bailout..."

To: danderso who wrote (108)	12/24/1997 12:08:00 PM
From: Esvida	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Can you and your friends share your view about what we should do here in the US? If you take a look at our stock market, if you tune into our discussions, if you watch our leaders in actions, I don't know how you can paint such a broad stroke about us as ignoring Asia. -Al

To: danderso who wrote (108)	12/24/1997 12:18:00 PM
From: Defrocked	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

I would like to provide anecdotal evidence on the impact Asian deflation may exert on US GDP growth. The story also has humanitarian undertones with which I empathize. A former colleague of mine is a Board member of a well known institution of higher learning. At a very recent meeting the Financial Officer reported that consideration of declining enrollment for the 98/99 year must be addressed. Interviews with a number of Korean, Japanese and other Far East students were suggesting that many would be unable to continue their education next year without substantial, and currently unavailable, financial aid and assistance. The impact on total school enrollment was projected to possibly approach a 10% decline. Given the not-for-profit budget outlook, a 10% decline in enrollment would have serious implications for the school in terms of expenditures, recruiting, staffing, etc. Just an example of the small and close nature of our planet. FWIW.

To: danderso who wrote (108)	12/24/1997 2:56:00 PM
From: RealMuLan	Respond to of 9980

Very well said, Dave.

To: danderso who wrote (108)	12/25/1997 12:26:00 AM
From: Rational	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

Dave: I was tempted to respond to your remarks. As far as I understand the situation, the US policy makers are very concerned about Asia affecting the US economically and politically. They know that if South Korea declares debt moratorium, the global economy is going to nosedive. Today, Robert Rubin made a comment that "in the national security interest," US will make direct lending to S Korea. Japan has also announced direct lending. Both Japan and the US have asked their commercial banks to roll-over loans by considering S Korea's long-term creditworthiness. Federal Reserve has dispatched an economist (who, incidentally, was a colleague of mine!) to Korea for a direct assessment of the economic situation there. It is thus very important to judge the enormous impact that a fall-out in SE Asia will have on the global economy from the actions (not words) of the Fed, Treasury Department and other international financial institutions. The IMF pronouncement that SE Asia will have little impact on the US and the West is as wrong as the declarations a few months ago that roaring Asian tigers will continue to boom. Their remarks may also be to calm the markets here; but their frantic actions speak a volume for the anticipated troubles. I believe that the US and European corporations' profit growth will severely erode due to the SE Asian problems. Asian countries have already taken serious steps to export as much as possible, import only the necessities, trade among themselves, pay off foreign debt, save as much as possible. [Mahathir says they are forced to do so.] As this happens, (IMO) the all-time high US$ will gradually fall in value against the Asian currencies as investors pull out of their US Treasury investments to invest in the highly lucrative Asian debt markets, US will be forced to raise interest rates to restore some equilibrium, and the US equity market will shrink. Between October and now, the US equity market has shrunk considerably [Microsoft alone has lost $36 bil, and one has to keep adding the losses in ORCL, INTC, SUNW, MOT, ....] The level of DJIA or S&P 500 tells very little about the actual erosion in the US equity markets. I believe more erosion will follow. Today, a London investment banker was saying that it was perhaps the time to get into the cheap Asian equity markets! This was after the whole world began to firmly believe in the resolve of US/Japan/IMF to rescue South Korea after Indonesia. This banker did not say if he felt it prudent to pull out of the US and European markets -- but there is a limited amount of money. Sankar

To: danderso who wrote (108)	1/9/1998 4:42:00 AM
From: Thomas Haegin	Respond to of 9980

Dave, << The Asians are busy adapting their plans to the new circumstances. >> What are these plans, then? I guess we all are highly interested what is happening in Asia on a corporate level in terms of spending/upgrading factories, employee layoffs, maybe deferral of hi-tech purchases from the US, maybe cutback on Coke drinking, anything. Maybe the bold ones going on aquisitions trail, maybe mergers and consolidations? So whenever you speak to your Asian contacts again, maybe you can learn some more (maybe then also say where the particular fellow is located). This would be very helpful anecdotes. Thanks a lot for looking in, Thomas