Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MCsweet who wrote (56489)	12/31/2015 11:59:54 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Respond to of 78753

I usually don't post my buys except for the monthly update, since I don't think my buys contain any actionable information. I am not good in timing the buys or determining that the company is undervalued. So perhaps they'd be contrary indicator at best. ;) I also don't post nanocap or illiquid microcap ideas/buys/sells anymore. Unfortunately forums do move market on these and I'd rather not. However, most of them are already available on CoBF or here or other places if you follow the usual suspects. ;) Take care and have a great New Year.

To: MCsweet who wrote (56489)	12/31/2015 3:48:19 PM
From: Shane M	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78753

One of my pet peeves is posters who post after news that drives a stock way up, saying they bought a large position last week. It is really annoying. Maybe it is too much sour grapes on my part, but I'm almost of the opinion they shouldn't post it all if they aren't willing to post when the stock is undervalued. MCsweet, I actually like talking about investing and investments, but I find unfortunately in most cases posting specific ideas on forums tends to be unproductive for me due to my methods, the blowback and how it influences my thinking. Often I think it's because what I find attractive doesn't really fit what others are looking for. There's an element of "like minded thinking" that is helpful, too much is certainly bad - too little is also bad - and it's difficult to find a good balance imho. In the end though, managing the psychology of investing and managing my mental space is an important aspect of the process and regulates what I put out there. One of the key dangers I find is that publicly defending investments is I can too easily become "invested" in those picks. It's an ego thing. For example: Simply saying that I favor a stock can actually change my behavior and thinking toward that stock. I can begin to look for evidence to support my selection, and discard inconvenient news (confirmation bias). Just simply making an argument almost forces us into that mode. I also try to keep the endowment effect in mind - if I own something I probably value it more highly than others would. I find that these, and so many other things come into play if I discuss stock selections publicly and make efforts to defend the selections, that on net I've found it's best to not go into much detail. (I think Guy Spier has talked about this - and why he doesn't publicly discuss positions now.) Some people are better at managing this than others - but I'm not one of those. I'm best to simply limit my outside interactions. William Green, an author who studied some of the best investors, commented in an interview that one of the best investors he knew felt most of the best investors "had a touch of asperger's" that helps them remain less emotional about the market, enabling better decisions. A component of asperger's is also relating to people in a different way than most. (I have an uncle w/ Asperger's so I sortof understand the muted responses and confusion in communication that can occur.) Compared to others, I think I'm fairly sensitive to other people's viewpoints - whether by nature or by upbringing. I let it all in and try to process it. In the end I've concluded that for investing this often doesn't help, so I have to "manage" how what I expose myself to. Maybe it's mentally weak - it certainly sounds that way to me - and it is probably conducive to putting blinders on in cases - but I used to get talked out of good ideas and would regret not following through. Now I mostly just have myself to blame for my poor decisions (like my move into energy this year has turned out)! As to some recent moves: I added to exisiting position in Michael Kors KORS and opened new position in WMT Wal-Mart yesterday. KORS and WMT are both likely of interest to value investors, and for me they're also likely to benefit from a January effect as both had pretty bad 2015s from a price change standpoint. Yeah KORS is fashion and flakey, so I understand people not wanting to be in that, but I've had some success with a few of these in the past (I think industry focus on same store sales sometimes overshadows value/profitable growth and can provide opportunity in these types of things). WMT is Wal-Mart. Their numbers are deteriorating a bit, but the share price has deteriorated far more moving into my buy range. I really don't even like shopping there (although the online order and store pickup is nice), but it just seems like a fair price for a pretty good company, is conservative, pays a nice dividend, seems to do OK in any economic environment. I'll stop, I'm starting to rationalize, I think :-) I was going to add to LVS Las Vegas Sands today but decided to wait as it was spiking up in a fairly weak market w/ low volume at the end of the day. Just looking at their numbers they're the best casino operator by far, although exposed to Macau and Chinese crackdown on largess has hurt their business. Note: I'm buying bad momentum, and that's usually not the best thing to do - but if I'm going to buy bad mo I figure pre-January is the time to do it. Over the past two days I sold my positions in INTC Intel and VLO Valero. I'd held a large Intel position for several years and it just felt closer to "fairly valued" now, so I liquidated my final blocks of it. There was some consideration for January effect also as I suspect some pent up selling demand beginning at the start of the new year. Same for VLO - it's been strong - and on a value basis kills on so many metrics (it's the #1 value stock based on my metrics) - but I guess I have concerns about sustainability for refineries. I'm going against the "let winners run" philosophy here, but I felt I could probably redeploy the cash in better opportunity. (In the past I've had decent success at knowing when to sell, so I try not to ignore that gnawing feeling when it hits - but I also try to guard against the "easy" thing to do also). I didn't do it today, but I'm probably going to add some of this cash to my BRK.B position. I also need to rebuild my list of potential "buy" companies as it's fairly short now. Full disclosure: I moved to an overweight position in energy in 2015 and it so far has been a pretty bad call. I could've bought so much more of those companies if I'd have waited. My biggest $ loser of the year was BBL (mining/commodities). So I'll be that guy that says: "Hey, I bought a big position in BBL and promptly lost 50%!" All of that is to say "Be careful with anything I say, because sometimes I'm flagrantly wrong" ;-) Best wishes,