To: Mr. Aloha who wrote (11917 ) 12/24/1997 2:53:00 PM From: chaz Read Replies (2) | Respond to
I agree with you that current situation may not impact CYMI's business plan...if that means they will continue to produce their current product, stay ahead of the technology curve, and be ready with the next when the present product peaks. I hope they can do it, but if you mean maintaining a sales growth, that depends far more on what customers are willing to buy, and when. I don't think you can successfully argue that pushouts will not occur. They already have, and more may come. As to the grateful recipient stuff, we've bailed them out before, and got what...? Closed markets, that's what. We also got their imports. Our trade negotiators are not a bunch of Yankees...we don't secure hard bargains, and IMO we won't kick too hard while these counries are down. I don't grasp how you can ignore the currency situation. These nations will find imports harder to buy, and we will find them easier. For lots of American companies, you can kiss profits goodbye, and for those firms that are relatively more dependent upon Asian/Pacific revenues, the greater will be the bottom line impact. There's no question that American firms have a leg up in technology, and that for the next 5-6 years we'll maintain it. Did you catch Andy Grove (Time's Man of the Year, by the way) the other night on the Charlie Rose program? He clearly expects the struggle for technology leadership to continue, and become even more intense within the next 5-6 years. The Orient isn't going to concede anything. Just suppose a competitor, to stay in the business, is willing to cut prices, even drastically, to gain a piece of CYMI's 90% market share. Do you think Cymer's margains would hold in a market that may be contracting due to pushouts? 1998 is going to be a rough year for profits, and tech stock prices, and I've positioned myself for that. I'm looking to 1999. Chaz.
