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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Grommit who wrote (56512)	1/1/2016 1:03:36 PM
From: MCsweet	1 Recommendation Recommended By research1234 Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78748

Those are great returns Grommit, but simple average should not be used for returns over time. Better to use no calculation at all IMO. When you lose 50% and gain 100% you are back to even, but on a simple average you have earned a simple average of 25%. MC

To: Grommit who wrote (56512)	1/1/2016 2:37:17 PM
From: Graham Osborn	Respond to of 78748

Thanks for sharing the historic returns, I think if everyone on the thread did that we'd all look at each other a bit differently. I haven't actually had my return audited but I think it would come out somewhere in the vicinity of 12.5%. However my portfolio has been more concentrated than most on the thread so you could argue the risk was correspondingly greater. I lost money in pretty much everything (aka shorts) except energy and some healthcare GARPs (yes I admit it) early in the year. Pretty much everything I hold right now has limited liquidity. I've posted pretty much everything I've done since early Oct on benpicks.com, which will be of limited use to most on this thread since I am down 2-3% over said period :) It seems that your bet on RE/ REITs is playing out well. I have looks at most of the stocks you have posted and while I have difficulty classifying then as "value" on first pass (most have EV/ EBITDA > 10 for ex) I acknowledge than shrewd sector rotation works miracles in the right hands. It seems REITs and the banks/ financial institutions have been delayed owing to investor pessimism after 08-09. Soros made most of his profits (which annualized exceeded Buffett's) essentially playing bubbles. That's a game I haven't had much opportunity to play since I only feel safe doing it in the early stages and letting profits run. I'm also glad someone is willing to admit they lost 50% in a downturn and figured out a way to make it back. My concern of course is that not every rebound will be as quick as the last one, but it's a good reminder for us young folks that there will always be a time to buy. FWIW geometric mean is a good one.