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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shane M who wrote (56549)	1/3/2016 8:08:19 PM
From: Graham Osborn	Respond to of 78774

The best time for selling into rallies was Q1 2015, when everyone thought it was 2009 all over again. Now the rallies take but a breath to die. We need a real fundamental M&A wave to rejuvate the hope and I believe that just starting to kindle now. One of TGA's (my fave) majority shareholders just issued an "ultimatum" for a significant buyback above what was previously announced plus management ownership. That's what I'd like to see - not all these foolish blue chip buybacks out of debt financings to appease "long term" activists. But to your point - yes oil is still in a bear market and if you choose to trade it you will have to be willing to feed the brokers. If you want a fundamental argument, probably at least 3-5 years of low prices are needed for the leveraged producers to fully asphyxiated and the capital markets to dry up fully. Oh Rockefeller where are thou? Graham

To: Shane M who wrote (56549)	1/3/2016 8:16:09 PM
From: Grommit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78774

I think another thing I've learned from reading many of the energy boards, is how "emotional" oil and energy is to so many of the investors there. There's almost a religious fervor about the topic. That informs to a degree my focus on sentiment to a large degree. yes. they selectively filter, read, and post. and with the reinforcing belief that you have superior knowledge, you overload your portfolio. i've been around this board for 10+ years. i recall when bury, clark, paul and others were looking for graham cigar butts. i've made a few strategic calls that might have gone the other way. I followed energy and peak oil. dabbled in a few oil sands. then, in 2005-6, when peak oil hit the front page of the new york times (for the 1st time) i went all in -- 25% to 30% of portfolio in oil sands. oil was $25-$30 a bbl. later, in the 2008 crash i found reit pref shares at $10 +/- and sold my other crap at a loss and and loaded up. bury has a claim to fame on bad mortgage debt. those were my best calls. as i said -- sector selection is more important than stock selection. i see no screaming opportunities now. maybe this is the time to load up on energy? maybe this is the time to hunker down for awhile longer?