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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (17519)	1/4/2016 11:49:55 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 33421

Thanks Ox. The UGAZ daily chart of WG's looks like more upside ..... The below ERX 60 minute energy bull share ETF has a bullish descending wedge that I have not annotated on the chart... The USO and crude are trying to rally.... crude closed above it's 21 DMA last Thursday... and crude may well attempt to work it's way north up to it's 50 Day MA at $40.. that's the bull side The $40 level is historically tremendously important with the 1980 top occurred there after the run up from the 3 to 4 area was where we when OPEC cartelized itself in the early 1970's... as well as the first Gulf War top at $40 in Jan of 1992 it has to compete with the fundamentals Light, sweet crude for February delivery fell 28 cents, or 0.8%, to $36.76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent, the global benchmark, fell six cents, or 0.2%, to $37.22 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. More than 18 months into the crude-price rout, oil production remains high around the world. The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Thursday said that domestic oil production was higher than previously reported in each of the first nine months of 2015. On Monday, data provider Genscape Inc. told clients that crude-oil stockpiles in the key storage hub of Cushing, Okla., rose to a record in the week ended Friday. Ample Cushing supplies in the past year have sparked some concerns that Cushing, which is the delivery point for Nymex futures, could run out of storage space for oil.... Some oil analysts and investors have argued for months that the low price of crude doesn’t adequately account for a possible supply disruption due to violence or unrest. The oil market has been vulnerable to sharp rebounds in recent months as traders who had bet on lower prices quickly reverse course. *Hedge funds and other money managers have held large numbers of bets* in recent weeks that oil prices would fall, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Increased concerns about geopolitical conflicts could have prompted some traders to close out their bearish bets. Feb and March of 2017 and Dec of 2018 were the 3 longer dated months on the NYMEX crude strip that had the largest volume today.... and they were all being sold and down on the day..... The east coast is having it's coldest temperatures of this winter..... as is much of the country that helps Natural Gas in the near term JP

To: The Ox who wrote (17519)

1/5/2016 2:54:26 AM

From: John Pitera

1 Recommendation

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roguedolphin

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421

OX, we've had some pretty good years with natural gas the fund we had back in 2000 put on multiple contracts when it broke out in the late summer...... back in the the 1990's and in the first several years of this century... the seasonal highs in Natural Gas were definitely in December and thus it gave you a time target to get out .... and also a price high in July for the summer AC season.... the NG market has assumed entirely new qualities since we have had the rise of fracing.

John

Message 14957984

To: John P who wrote (2596)	12/6/2000 1:14:49 PM
From: John P	Read Replies (2) of 17523

WOW a single Natural Gas Futures contract has gone up $43,000 since the end of Oct. The Jan 2001 NG contract has traded up to 8.75 today. It's coming close to winning the title of the Market of the Year even my targets have been taken out.... Yes, Natural Gas is going higher. I imagine 5$ is a minimum and under the right constellation of events, I think we could see $7 Natural within 4 to 8 months. Message 14195507 this has been an excellent example of a market that one tries to buy on a reaction (earlier this year) and then just stays long with a trailing stop loss. It also is important to remember that when a market goes into new alltime high ground, the further upside can be so much greater than the conventional wisdom. we might even see $12 in this type of market, but it's a very dangerous market to trade now if one is not a commercial. a couple of old posts talking about the bullish ascending triangle back below 4.60 in the summer and the contract specs. Message 13935506 Message 13935553 One more post I have dug out from this thread, talks about the Elliot Third of a third concept that Chip was asking about today, this may further clarify the earlier post to Chip. Re. selling the news on oil normally that is that case. when everyone is talking about a trend it's time for it to reverse. occasionally you can find instances were everyone is talking about something and to use an elliot wave concept, it's a third of a third wave advance in a bull mkt or it would be a decline in a bear mkt. it's a point where their is mass realization of a trend and it propels the trend much further even though everyone "knows" about it. The issue is how many people are long these energy stocks and have been in the energy complex bull mkt?? the fundamental situation in NG and heating oil, seems to indicate higher prices, but I agree that it's "front page" news so we'll have to watch it closely. John+ Message 14212272 John