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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hank Scorpio who wrote (77592)	1/5/2016 2:33:48 PM
From: Seismo	4 Recommendations Recommended By Investor Clouseau Mevis Qualified Opinion toccodolce Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218739

Gtober, I'm using the Shiller PE for an easy to find valuation that has a good correlation with future 10 year S&P returns. There have only been 4 times in history where the Shiller PE was where it is now. 1929, 1966-ish, 2000-ish and 2007-ish. Using just year end , inflation adjusted, S&P closing prices, once the Shiller PE got to the 25 area, the MINIMUM cycle low for that period was -60%, -52%, -41% and -41% respective to the dates above. I think the 1550 area will offer strong support and a good bounce target. To get to -40% or more, I'm just looking at history. Who knows, maybe this time is different. But after a global debt buildup that far exceeded GDP growth and has no historical precedent, I think we are in for a mighty hangover