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Strategies & Market Trends : Dino's Bar & Grill -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Goose94 who wrote (15394)	1/7/2016 8:13:38 AM
From: Goose94	Respond to of 203026

The effect that U.S. rates have had on the gold price is “overdone” and may take a back seat this year, said the World Gold Council today in its 2016 outlook and 2015 review. At first glance, 2015 was not good for gold, the council acknowledged. Gold’s dollar price was down by more than 11% by the end of 2015, investor sentiment was bearish: average net-longs reached their lowest level since 2003 and gold-backed exchange-traded funds saw outflows of 100 tonnes. The council explained that in the months leading up to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s first rate hike in 9.5 years, higher bond yields strengthened the dollar, putting pressure on gold. “We believe that 2015 was an exception and not the rule. While the U.S. dollar is certainly a significant driver for gold, there are two additional important points to consider: (1) it is not the only driver, and (2) it is not always the most relevant metric for most investors,” the report suggested. The council added, “In our view, interest rates are not a dominant driver of the gold price once the effect of the dollar is taken into account. And the dollar has already strengthened more in the past two years than it has since the ‘dot-com bubble’ burst. In fact, the dollar is at the highest level it's been at the beginning of a Fed tightening cycle since the 1980s.” This is relevant for two reasons the WGC said, “the dollar tends to revert back to its long run average and a strong U.S. dollar is a de-facto tightening mechanism, preventing the Fed from moving interest rates too far too soon and risk crippling economic growth.” The report highlighted that while the gold price declined in 2015 in U.S. dollar terms, it was not the case in other currencies. They cited gold's price in the Turkish lira, Russian ruble and the Indonesian rupiah. Physical Demand The council said that more than 90% of physical demand for the yellow metal is coming from outside the U.S., primarily from emerging economies. As of the third quarter of 2015, Indian and Chinese demand were up relative to the same period last year. “In China, the PBoC’s periodical announcements on the additions to their gold reserves from June onwards and the Shanghai Gold Exchange’s intention to introduce a yuan-denominated trading mechanism highlight the importance of this market. Similarly, the Indian gold trade has expressed its intent to establish a gold exchange in the not-so-distant future,” the report said

To: Goose94 who wrote (15394)	1/7/2016 8:56:29 AM
From: Goose94	Respond to of 203026

Fed Official Confesses Fed Rigged Stock Market -- Crash Certain In a dynamite interview, Richard Fisher, former president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, gave what may be the biggest confession you'll ever see and hear from a Federal Reserve insider: the Federal Reserve knowingly "front ran" the US stock market recovery (i.e., manipulated the market) and created a huge asset bubble. Fisher expresses certainty that the "juiced" stock market will come down and is coming down now that the Fed has taken its foot off the accelerator ... and that it has a long way yet to go. While that is no news to readers here whose eyes are wide open, a "market put" has been denied by the Fed and by many market advisors. That the market was an overinflated bubble created by the Fed has been denied, too; but Fisher clearly and gleefully admits the Fed created a bubble that will have to deflate now that the Federal Reserve's stimulus is off. As one of the members of the Federal Reserve's FOMC (the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets US monetary policy), Richard Fisher participated in and voted on all of the Fed's policies of zero interest and quantitative easing, so he has inside knowledge of all the discussions behind the scenes at the Fed. Here are the significant quotes from Richard Fisher on CNBC's video: What the Fed did -- and I was part of that group -- is we front-loaded a tremendous market rally, starting in 2009. It's sort of what I call the "reverse Whimpy factor" -- give me two hamburgers today for one tomorrow. I'm not surprised that almost every index you can look at ... was down significantly. [Referring to the results in the stock market after the Fed raised rates in December.] Basically, we had a tremendous rally, and I think there's a great digestive period that is likely to take place now, and it may continue. We front-loaded at the Federal Reserve an enormous rally in order to accomplish a wealth effect. I wouldn't blame [what is happening in the market's now] on China. We're always looking for excuses. I wasn't surprised at last year. And I wouldn't be surprised at a rather fallow performance this year as well. A lot of people are building cash positions.... Those [investors] that are taking a longer term view are being extremely cautious here, are raising their cash levels, are nervous about the valuations that are in the market. The values are very richly priced here, so I could see significant downside. Asked if saw a big unwind from the Fed's 6.5-year policy and what it would look like on the way down, Fisher responded, I was warning my colleagues, "Don't go wobbly if we have a 10-20% correction at some point.... Everybody you talk to ... has been warning that these markets are heavily priced. Elsewhere Fisher said: The Federal Reserve is a giant weapon that has no ammunition left. You have to be careful here and frank about what drove the markets.... It was, the Fed, the Fed, the Fed, the European Central Bank, the Japanese Central bank ... all quantitatively driven by central bank activity. That's not the way markets should be working.... They were juiced up by central banks, including the Federal Reserve.... So, I think you have to acknowledge reality. It's about time for breaking the economic denial. Acknowledging reality is what many in the mainstream media, at the Fed, and among economists and stock analysts refused to do. Now that the US stock market appears to be crashing, is Richard Fisher's confession to cover his own hind end, by saying, "I warned the guys about this, and I voted against QE3 because I knew it went too far?" Is he just the first rat to flee the sinking ship, or is he just the most honest of Fed officials who is no longer on the board so feels freer to talk? Your thoughts? (And please pass the confession along so that it gets lots of play time because you don't get a confession like this about the inner arguments of the Fed very often. I imagine Yellen is doin' a little yellin' right now.) David Haggith