C.S.Y2K BEST OF 1997 - CORY HAMASAKI - long post
Nobody can say it better than Cory. This is a summary of 1997, and an outlook at 1998. Some quotes of this article, just to get you reading:
'I'm pushing the rate angle to get geeks to buzz about Y2K to raise awareness and get the work going'
'What can each of us do...'
'Arthur L. Thomas, director of global operations services at Merrill Lynch, said that sum comprises as much as 40 percent of the firm's projected budget for information technology through 2000.
Getting the picture, denial-heads? Some organizations have and they're fighting for their lives.'
'Practice saying that, I still choke when I state my rate, a-hack, a-hunndrack, abba, ahh-hahahundred dollars an hour'
'Does this explain why the Bank of America is so generously giving fifty million dollars in bonuses to programmers. Generous... hahaha, BoA management is screaming in terror. That's a fifty million dollar scream.'
'Let's recap the year. We've had 3 votes in c.s.y2k, the uniform resonse is 'pretty bad', the final tally will be very interesting. Rates have gone up 50+ percent. Newsweek, USAToday, and Business Week have run "It's bad" articles. Most daily papers seem to have run at least a couple Y2K "It's bad" articles. The top tier banks are running scared, flinging out big numbers but still talkin' jive.'
'This game will play out more extreme than I ever imagined.'
John
-----------------------------------------
Cory Hamasaki's DC Y2K Weather Report # 56.
"December 24, 1997 - 737 days to go."
(c) 1997 Cory Hamasaki - I grant permission to distribute and
reproduce this article as long as this entire document is reproduced in its entirety including this notice. I do not grant permission to
a commercial publisher to reprint this in print media.
As seen in
USENET:comp.software.year-2000
elmbronze.demon.co.uk
kiyoinc.com
Please fax or email copies of this to your geek pals, especially those
idiots who keep sending you lightbulb, blonde, or Bill Gates jokes,
and urban legends like the Arizona rocket car story.
If you have a Y2K webpage, feel free to host the Weather Reports.
Don't forget- April 2, 3 1998, Geek Out.
-------------- Mega issue ----------
1. Comment to Ken.
2. What we can do.
3. ALC 6. Op codes.
4. Readers Mailbox
5. IRS in Good Shape.
6. CCCC
------------ Comment to Ken. ----------------
From: "Ken Bradley (ATM)" <Ken.Bradley@gems3.gov.bc.ca>
Date: 23 Dec 97 12:50:08 PST
References: <882890138.1043726345@dejanews.com>
4.2
I have 29.5 yrs in this rat race (I lied and said 30 in the last survey...
<not a lie, just a senior moment, the years blur together, next thing you know, you're in the home, gumming some oatmeal, hobbling around with an aluminum walker.>
I apologize. I rounded up.) I have Fortran (whazat?), COBOL (or is it
COBALT?), PL/1, Mark IV, Extracto (how's that for dating myself?), mixed with a smattering of Assembler, SAS, REXX, Pascal, etc.
Have not had a raise in 5 years. Actually made more in 1991 than now.
<I've heard this before, useless old fogger, you're lucky we keep you
around, we're so charitable, there you go, nattering about IEBGENER control statements, as if anyone cares.>
I speak on radio about Y2K, lecture to colleges and university, write aboutit, and bring it up at every party or gathering I can.
NOBODY Cares. They smile and back away. "It will be fixed." they say, while they search for someone else to talk to. Clerks stare at you like you are speaking greek. A 'network' install guy said to me, "It's a COBALT problem only. It'll be fixed in plenty of time."
<Denial has got to be over. But it's not, we still have the clueless who are trying to reason it out....>
Cory.... save us!!! If your wit and wisdom can not get through to the
<I can't, I've tried for a year, this is WRP56, I'm stressed out too,
maybe... lemme think about this.>
ignorant masses (true meaning of the word here), what can?
I am really, really, (repeat until out of breath).... worried.
If the Thai Bhat drops a few pennies the stock market craps big time. If UPS strikes for a few weeks then 600 companies in the USA alone go TU. Now multiply that by 10,000 and maybe we are getting a feel for the scope of this issue. Keep up the information dissemination. God help us.
<OK, time for action.>
738 days until the change that will affect us all.
--
Opinions are mine and not those of my organization.
"The Roman Empire failed because it was not Year '0' compliant" kmb
-- What we can do -- Keep Ken in mind in 1998 ---------
I've been doing rates. The rate thing is my way of getting the
programmer's attention. If enough geeks jump to bigger buck jobs, then even the most clueless of management would figure out that something was up. What do we geeks like to talk about, geekgurls, startrek, DOOM, #9 video cards, and way down on the list, cash. I'm pushing the rate angle to get geeks to buzz about Y2K to raise awareness and get the work going. I don't know how well this has worked. About once a month, some clueless non-cranker with a reading comprehension problem comes online and gets miffed that the tame geeks are getting uppity.
Listen up non-crankers, you don't get a say in how much we charge for our services. Like Ken above, lots of us, moi included, have had long periods at insultingly poor conditions and wages. Do you understand, we crank the code that keeps civilization running. This is not simple stuff like putting up a webpage or installing W95. This is touchy, hard, obscure, complex, mission critical work. There are few of us who can do it and there is a lot of work to do.
What can each of us do...
1) Adopt a local media outlet, talk radio, newspaper, public access cable channel. Write letters, op-ed pieces, a column, go on the radio and run your yap. If you aren't a great writer or speaker, don't worry about it,
ever see Cliff Stoll, he's a wirehead, you have something to say that
people need to hear. Pick up articles from c.s.y2k and mail, email, and fax them to the media. If you're shy, just fire up the fax program and let it do the talking for you.
2) Like Ken, offer to speak at a business, computer, or other class at a local college, business school, or university. I've taught college classes and there's nothing a professor likes better than to bring in a guest speaker on an interesting current topic. It's great for the class and the professor gets a break. Just write up an outline, download some press clippings like this week's Business Week article and give it a go.
Students like handouts, read the Business Week article to them and quiz them on it, get them thinking, also give them a list of questions to ask their bank, utility company, etc.
Here is some good-news that you can use to bash the denial-heads and other doofuses, Well gorsh, I ain't never seen no Y2K bug so I'm reasoning from ignorance that it doesn't exist. Doofuses, call John Andrews, Edward Kelly, and Arthur Thomas, tell them that they are being taken in by Y2K hype artists.
----------
Bank of America just announced $50 million in cash bonuses for programmers.
In 1997 alone, CSX Corp. spent $35 million to $40 million on Y2K, says Chief Information Officer John Andrews, and the company is only 30% finished.
American Airlines has budgeted $100 million, GTE $150 million,
Fed Governor Edward W. Kelley Jr. testified this month before the House Banking Committee that 10 percent of the system's 90 million lines of code will have to be rewritten. 'The Fed is giving Y2K the highest priority,' Kelley added. Some 175 full-time Fed employees and 500 to 1,000 part-timers are expected to work on the problem
Merrill Lynch, Co. expects to spend in excess of $200 million to make its computers work in the year 2000.
Arthur L. Thomas, director of global operations services at Merrill Lynch, said that sum comprises as much as 40 percent of the firm's projected budget for information technology through 2000.
Getting the picture, denial-heads? Some organizations have and they're fighting for their lives.
----------
3) Polish your professional skills. If you don't know VSAM, take a hard look at it, set up some file copies, Get ready, you know it's going to be bad. If you have some prebuilt solutions, maybe you can take a day off once in a while once the deathmarch starts. Maybe code up some windowing and file expansion routines. Pick some technical area and get real good at it, become the Miyamoto Musashi of CICS.
I'm not asking you to give away the store. Make information available
and distribute solutions. I started the ALC lessons to bash the
denial-heads but even with that less than generous-hearted motive, the lessons have turned into a useful project. Lots of compiler language programmers have looked at assembler and just couldn't make the leap of understanding. These lessons should help because we're taking it in small bites.
4} Go on job interviews. You're underpaid. Find out how badly. Since you don't really plan to leave, when they ask how much you expect, tell them, Oh, I'm looking for between a hundred forty and a hundred sixty thousand,
depending upon benefits, stock options, and gainsharing. Practice saying that, I still choke when I state my rate, a-hack, a-hunndrack, abba, ahh-hahahundred dollars an hour. When you're in the shower, practice, practice, practice until it's as natural as saying I'd like a number 5 meal, supersized, with a coke. You don't want to sound as stupid as I do.
5) Collect information on remediation work, geek raids, rate spikes, and post this so we know what's happening across the country, around the world.
6) Meet with fellow Y2K'ers, as the crisis builds you may need to bail out of a death-march or find a company that will survive, keep your network up.
7) Don't let the horn-hairs get to you. Stupid twits, ding-dongs, I'll
give them the back of my hand.
-------------- ALC 6 Opcodes ------------------
More deep secrets of assembler. This lesson is more like a Karate-kid exercise, wax-on, wax-off.
1A AR Add Register
5A A Add storage
FA AP Add Packed
1D DR Divide Register
5D D Divide storage
FD DP Divide Packed
14 NR And Register
54 N And storage
D4 NC And Character
05 BALR Branch and Link Register
45 BAL Branch and Link (to a storage address)
07 BCR Branch on condition Register
47 BC Branch on condition (to a storage address)
06 BCTR Branch on count Register
46 BCT Branch on count (to a storage address)
95 CLI Compare immediate
D5 CLC Compare logical character
See the pattern in the opcodes. Most opcodes and all the common ones are one byte.
There're about fifty essential opcodes. Know these and you can read S/370 machine language. They fall into a dozen families. If you have a good memory, you can memorize them in a couple days.
In general, the first nibble states what the operands are like. 0 and 1
are the register instructions. 4 and 5 are register and storage, RX. 9 is storage immediate. D and F are storage to storage, F is packed decimal.
There are exceptions. Most of the other prefixes are more obscure
instructions used for floating point and system services.
Notice that
A = Add
B = Subtract ( B = S? )
C = Multiply
D = Divide
The second nibble states what the instruction does. See A's, think adds, generally.
Homework, get your IBM card and memorize the 0, 1, 4, 5, 9, D, and F, prefixed opcodes but do it as families. Look for the patterns.
---------- Reader's Mailbox ------------------------------
This wonderful letter came in which I've altered slightly to anonymize the people. I haven't changed the numbers or time period.
-----------
Hi, just visited the chat group and mentioned the big bucks my 39 year old son is making. Thought it would be old hat to them, but they didn't seem to be blase and thought I should mention it to you.
He worked for a big bank for 7 years, making $41,000, (a Y2K group, very small). Then I mentioned he would be making very big dollars soon (I was reading c.s.y2k). He thought I was off the wall. Then heard about Y2K at an insurance company and left the bank for $50,000. After 6 months, some people there left for a consulting company. He followed them. Now making $75,000, with perks comes to $125,000. Works 40 hour week in 4 days, home for 3 days, they pay everything. He is learning even more and will be
more valuable to the next client.
I am really happy for him.
------------
I'm happy for him too. I don't know what kind of perqs bring a 75K salary up to 125K but it could be stock options, incentive bonuses, completion bonuses, etc.
Our 39 year old was yoked to a millstone at the bank, slogging, slogging like an ox until he took that chance and got his fair market value.
Who wants to bet that he doesn't get another fifty grand more in 1998?
Does this explain why the Bank of America is so generously giving fifty million dollars in bonuses to programmers. Generous... hahaha, BoA management is screaming in terror. That's a fifty million dollar scream.
--------- IRS in Good Shape -----------------------------
Oh look, the entire text of this article has been cached on a disk at your ISP. Fair Use. Their text <my comments>
If Computer Geeks Desert, IRS Codes Will Be Ciphers
By Rob Wells, Associated Press
Washington Post, Wednesday, December 24, 1997; Page A11
Computer geeks at the Internal Revenue Service had better stock up on a lot of colas, cookies and potato chips, because they can expect to put in marathon hours in the coming year as they deal with a technological triple Whammy.
<colas, snacks? Frank? Frank, they know about you.>
First, the so-called Year 2000 problem: That involves scouring 62 million lines of computer code to ensure computers do not crash at the next millennium. The estimated cost is $900 million, next only to the Defense Department as the most expensive Year 2000 fix in government.
Second, the IRS faces a huge job reprogramming its computers to reflect major tax code changes from the 1997 Taxpayer Relief Act.
Finally, the agency must pick a private contractor for modernizing its
far-flung computer system, perhaps history's biggest computer upgrade. One part of this 15-year project's first phase is expected to cost $639 million.
<yeah-yeah, so what?>
With all this work ahead, the IRS faces the unwelcome headache of keeping its computer programmers from jumping ship to more lucrative jobs in private enterprise.
<Hey aren't you the agency that was threatening RIF's about a year ago? Seems I recall talking to geek-pals at the IRS, -sob- Cory, they said, I have a mortgage and a kid in college, I need this job and they're gonna have a big RIF.>
"The concern is as we go along we will run up against a logistic logjam of trying to convert so many pieces at once," said John Yost, IRS Year 2000 project director. At the same time, Yost said he is concerned that the IRS could "run out of people to do the job."
"One of our problems now is competing to hold on to the people that we have," said Yost.
<Yes, It was last fall, there was lots of stuff in the news about getting
rid of programmers. I had to pep a couple people up, you'll find
something, maybe pull LAN cables for a while.>
In the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30, the IRS lost 8 to 9 percent of its computer programming staff, he said. That attrition rate may be comparable to private industry's but is 35 percent higher than the departure rate for computer specialists government-wide, according to the Office of Personnel Management.
<But, bub-but, wasn't that THE PLAN? Weren't there meetings and decisions to get these dirty, expensive programmers outa here?>
The Year 2000 problem evolves from the programming of many old computers to recognize dates in two-digit formats -- "97" would represent 1997 -- and the fear that if unrepaired, they will run awry after the stroke of midnight, Dec. 31, 1999. They would consider the year designated 2000 -- "00" -- as 1900.
The Office of Management and Budget estimates a $3.9 billion price tag to avert widespread government computer crashes from what's being called the "millennium crisis."
Demand for computer programmers with knowledge of COBOL and other old computer languages is high, especially in the Washington area, said Michael Higgins, a specialist in Year 2000 issues.
The highest-salaried nonmanagerial computer worker makes about $71,000 annually after 20 years at the IRS, Higgins said, while some companies are paying $85,000.
<Yeah, some companies in Texas and Florida where there's no income tax. Check out NYNY, Chicago, and SF, no 85K programmers there.>
"It's getting tighter and tighter with every day that passes," said Higgins, president and chief executive of Century Services Inc., a Germantown firm that has worked on Year 2000 with major banks and corporations. "There are only two years left, and they have one of the largest systems in the world."
Former IRS commissioner Margaret Milner Richardson predicted a tough year ahead for IRS computer staffers.
"I don't think there will be a lot of time to spare, and it will be very
nerve-racking," she said. "Government is having a very hard time getting enough qualified people."
<Wait, you were trying to boot out hard working grunt programmers last year. What is this, selective memory?>
The size of the IRS Year 2000 problem is enormous. The agency has to review 88,000 programs on 80 mainframe computers, debug a large telecommunications system and check such mundane items as elevators and building security systems.
So far, the IRS has converted 2,000 programs.
<I could make rude flatulent noises at this point but somehow I don't think it would add anything. Lemme see, 80,000 programs and you've fixed 2,000. 9 percent of the code-crankers have bailed including a guy I know who is one of the top assembler programmers in the world (it's not Frank). Frank bailed too but that was after the fiscal year.>
"I certainly don't think we're going to have extraordinary problems
associated with the Year 2000," Yost said. "We are on top of the
problem."
<Wnat? Let's see, pigs can fly. The tooth fairy exists.>
A leading congressional expert on Year 2000, Rep. Stephen Horn (R-Calif.), expressed strong confidence in the IRS's associate commissioner for technology, Arthur A. Gross, and other top management.
"They're a first-rate team," Horn said. "If any agency can do it, Gross will do it. He's got a proven track record. . . . I look for good things from IRS."
<sigh, some jobs are impossible. But don't give up. Jump in and give it a go.>
Horn's comments were notable considering that he gave the Treasury Department a grade of D- in September for its Year 2000 preparation. The IRS is the largest part of the Treasury Department.
Asked if he was changing that grade, Horn said, "We'll wait and see."
Copyright 1997 The Associated Press <Fair Use>
----------------- CCCC -----------------------------------
It's too bad that it's come to this, if we had just started earlier, been
a little more persistant, we wouldn't be in this mess. Goobers! This is
another fine mess you've gotten me into.
Am I too hard on the denial heads? I don't mean to be. In some cases, they are well meaning people who don't know that they don't know. Should we try to help them. Maybe provide an easy to read FAQ for them.
I lose it when they 1) attempt to reason from cluelessness, construct
elaborate thought sequences but they never had to recover from a
catastrophic system failure, so they have no concept of the omplexity of a production system. 2) think code-crankers are uppity if they want their fair market value.
We're talking about getting fair compensation to feed you, keep you warm, and keep the lights on. Or do you want welfare?
We need to bring the denial-heads over to the dark side of the force, join us, serve the emperor.
Let's recap the year. We've had 3 votes in c.s.y2k, the uniform resonse is 'pretty bad', the final tally will be very interesting. Rates have gone up 50+ percent. Newsweek, USAToday, and Business Week have run "It's bad" articles. Most daily papers seem to have run at least a couple Y2K "It's bad" articles. The top tier banks are running scared, flinging out big numbers but still talkin' jive.
Most of industry is not honest enough to say, we're hosed but we're going to do everything we can, we've fired all the bean counters and horn-hairs and given the programmers blank checks; you're asking for two hundred grand a year? Take two fifty.
Somehow, in the middle of all this, there are still denial-heads who know nothing about IT/MIS but believe they can extrapolate from what they know. It's astounding. This is like my telling Don Garletts, say Don, if you'd just add two digits of Nitro to the SwampRat, you'd shave another tenth of a second off your time.
How can they be so clueless and still function?
This game will play out more extreme than I ever imagined. It can't be stopped now, listen, shhhh, you can hear the fabric of civilization
tearing. Can we save what's left? Stay tuned. 1998 is ahead.
Check out ntplx.net any evening, 8-10PM EST. Lots of hot Y2K talk.
737 days to go.
Have a wonderful holiday and practice saying "Stick em up."
Cory Hamasaki |
