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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (17592)	1/10/2016 4:40:55 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 33421

Hi Iso, I have seen that article on Taylor shutting down his fund.... he brings up some excellent observations. Especially China and India are becoming such a big part of the Global economic system and you can not trust the data and information at all from either country. In fact, they are not capitalist economies and thus there is a thesis that the global capitalism system is under assault from that angle in addition to the Global Sea of Deb, unfunded liabilities, The global currency depreciation race and negative interest rates. Looking on the positive side.... Peter Lynch left his fund in 1990...... after having started it after the liquidation bear market of 1973-74..... He caught the secular upswing so early that he may have personally believed that returns would be lousy in the 1990's and that certainly was not the case. --------------------------- "China is the world's second-largest economy, but already much larger than the U.S. in a broad swathe of sectors. India will be the world's third-largest economy in a decade. *Unfortunately, their rise is increasing the global cost of capital* because an *ever-growing share of the most important data they produce is simply not credible. This obfuscation and distortion of data, whether deliberate or inadvertent, makes it increasingly difficult to forecast. China's stock market is suffering its worst start to the year in two decades, with worldwide repercussions. Global equities have lost more than $2.5 trillion of their value in the past week. So you can see why Taylor is so fearful of the opaqueness of Chinese data, both from the government and its companies.* Given the large number of known unknowns, investors hang on the words of legendary investors like George Soros, who has a track record of seeing through the fog of official obfuscations. He told a conference in Sri Lanka on Thursday: China has a major adjustment problem. I would say it amounts to a crisis. When I look at the financial markets there is a serious challenge which reminds me of the crisis we had in 2008. *The rise of computer-driven trading is also making markets more irrational,* Taylor argues, while the growth of nationalism in countries from Russia to South Africa means politics can trump economics in increasingly unforeseeable ways. "Truly -- to mix metaphors -- butterflies flapping their wings now regularly create hurricanes that stop out fundamentally-driven investors who cannot remain solvent longer than the market can remain irrational." In some ways, though, the most worrying element of Taylor's analysis of why he's throwing in the towel is the personal element: "We could be caught up in an erroneous market trend, which could then persist for far longer than we could take the pain. This has made what we enjoy most -- the thrill of analyzing economic data releases and company accounts -- no longer enjoyable. It is therefore time to accept that what we have done has worked brilliantly for twenty years but does not work any more." JP

To: isopatch who wrote (17592)	1/10/2016 4:47:19 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

The Vikings should have let Green Bay win last week in which case they would be playing the Redskins instead of losing to the feisty Seahawks..... Rusell Wilson turned a blow play into a tremendous play..... we were not going to see the Houston's Texan's QB Hoyer pull that kind of rabbit out of a hat. and the Vikings miss a 27 yard fieldgoal.... must feel worse than the Buffalo bills losing their 4st of four consecutive SuperBowls on a missed field goal.... thus enhancing Bill Parcels legacy.