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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: roguedolphin who wrote (17598)	1/11/2016 3:07:53 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 33421

Time to buy a cabin in Canada? Half off sale? Bob

To: roguedolphin who wrote (17598)	1/11/2016 5:59:07 PM
From: The Ox	3 Recommendations Recommended By Fiscally Conservative roguedolphin sixty2nds Respond to of 33421

A rapid appreciation of the U.S. dollar may send Brent oil to as low as $20 a barrel, according to Morgan Stanley. Oil is particularly leveraged to the dollar and may fall between 10 to 25 percent if the currency gains 5 percent, Morgan Stanley analysts including Adam Longson said in a research note dated Jan. 11. A global glut may have pushed oil prices under $60 a barrel, but the difference between $35 and $55 is primarily the U.S. dollar, according to the report. “Given the continued U.S. dollar appreciation, $20-$25 oil price scenarios are possible simply due to currency,” the analysts wrote in the report. “The U.S. dollar and non-fundamental factors continue to drive oil prices.” Brent crude capped its third annual decline in 2015 and has already lost more than 11 percent so far this year. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries effectively abandoned output limits in December, potentially worsening a global glut, while U.S. stockpiles remain about 100 million barrels above the five-year average. Oil tumbled last week on volatility in Chinese markets after the country sought to quell losses in equities and stabilize its currency. A 3.2 percent increase in the U.S. dollar -- as implied by a possible 15 percent yuan devaluation -- may drive crude in the high $20s, Morgan Stanley said. If other currencies move as well, the shift by both the dollar and oil could be even greater, according to the report. Brent crude closed at $33.55 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange on Friday, the lowest settlement since June 2004. Prices extended their declines Monday, losing 1.6 percent to $33.03 at 9:16 a.m. in London. Storage Tanks Morgan Stanley is not the first to forecast a drop to $20 oil, but its reasons differ from other banks. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has said there’s a possibility storage tanks will reach their limit, pushing crude down to levels necessary to force an immediate halt to some production. Stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for U.S. benchmark crude and the nation’s biggest oil-storage hub, expanded for a ninth week to 63.9 million barrels through Jan. 1, according to Energy Information Administration data. The hub has a working capacity of 73 million barrels. “Oil in the $20s is possible, but not for the reasons often cited,” Morgan Stanley said. “It’s not about deteriorating fundamentals.”

To: roguedolphin who wrote (17598)	1/11/2016 6:31:28 PM
From: John Pitera	4 Recommendations Recommended By Hawkmoon roguedolphin The Ox toccodolce Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Yes the $/CAD is really getting killed... The 10 year weekly chart keeps hitting and going through the lower Bollinger band. and the RSI has made a lower low showing increasing momentum versus the Oct decline. that shows really significant weakness. Dennis Gartman commented that the Canadian crude grade is selling for $14 ..... he said it's usually $7 or $8 below WTIC...... and it's at a $17 discount.... and China is said to have topped off their strategic Petroleum reserve. going back to the Canadian Buck you can see how volatile it is with it way up at 1.10 back in 2007 when Crude was going very strong as were all commodities.. and Now with Crude and commodities getting slammed so is the CAD.... The EEM emerging markets etf is already back at it's August low weakness in the commodity area Crude Hitting it's below it's lower momentum band again......Bollinger Band and making a new momentum low on the weekly chart... in that it's has a more powerful momentum than in the Nov- Dec decline.... with the Bollinger bands when the price goes break below it and if you want to see bottoming action you then look to see a new low in price where it is staying within the BB....... JP