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Biotech / Medical : North American Vaccine -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Bogdanoff who wrote (185)	12/26/1997 7:27:00 AM
From: andy harrison	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 507

David: I think that it will be different with NVX. The reason is that the DTaP approval sets the stage for the biggest $$$'s. The combo vaccines will be what sets NVX apart from the other companies. In the scheme of thing, the DTaP will be far from the companies largest product. I am looking more towards the menigitis and strep products. I really dont want to guess what will be the reaction to the approval at the exact moment of the approval. I am kind of hoping that it comes before or after market hours. The shorts will try to dampen the NVX news by shorting the stock. If the comes when the market is closed then the bulls will have a chance to plan their strategy will if it comes during the actual market hours, the shorts will probably jump on it. I still believe that in the next 3-5 years, NVX will be doing well over 1 billion in revenues and closing in on 2 billion with the menigitis and strep products coming on-line.

To: David Bogdanoff who wrote (185)	12/26/1997 8:13:00 AM
From: Don W Stone	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 507

David: Are you trying to appeal to fear, generate emotions? Have you read the 10Q on either of these companies? Are you fasbricating this stuff? How do you support your ideas? Starting with VIVUS: 1. Approval came last january ( not recently as you elude to.) 2. The product did't perform to expectations i.e. 40% effective at best when 60% or better was expected. 3. They had manufacturing problems so they said. 4. Sales went to hell. 5. Pfizer has a far better product coming out in mid '98. 6. Five of 7 analyst downgraded the stock. and7. They got bombed bigtime by a recent Barrons article. The stock has been in a steady decline for at least 4 months. Now that doesn't seem to resemble anything that you surmised from the company and it can hardly give one any insite about how NVX mite behave in the near future. Now Ligent: Apparently this is a hot little well followed company. I can't find any information about receiving any FDA approval ever and i doubt they have even applied. This company is in the early stages of product development. Has alliances with everyone. Their revenue comes solely from those alliances. Apparently some think it could prove to be a big winner some day. Possible, but that time is still a few years out and then some. Just mite prove to be an excellent long term investment and one to accumulate on weakness. The stock isn't "unknown". They are projected to loose $1.35 in'97 and .87 in'98. It has been in a steady decline since the first week in Oct giving up about 30% from its high. Hard to account for exactly why. Developement stage companies tend to move on milestone achievements, alliance announcements, and analyst recommendations. My guess is it has been quiet for a while. ONce again I can't relate this company at all to the stage at which NVX is at in its development. Neither of these companies or there situations provide any insite into how NVX mite react upon FDA approval. I would like to think your intention was to contribute insite rather than influence but I think the latter to be more likely. Go back and read up on both companies and than reread and reread and reread. Next go study everything that is a part of NVX's homepage. :-}, :-}.

To: David Bogdanoff who wrote (185)	12/27/1997 9:50:00 AM
From: andy harrison	Respond to of 507

David: A little disclosure on your part would be in order... Are you short shares in NVX???

To: David Bogdanoff who wrote (185)	12/27/1997 8:35:00 PM
From: Don W Stone	Respond to of 507

David; My apology. Now you said:<<<<but my expectations are not so high because I have been following other small drug companies that did not spike when expected good news materialized recently. This occured with Ligand when a product was approved and with Vivus when a UK marketing approval came through. A few weeks later, both stocks are double digits lower >>>>>> I think that you are actually stating here that these stocks dropped significantly upon the release of FDA approval news. That the good news was built into the price and everyone sold on the news. Now is the reader is to conclude that this is what could possibly happen to NVX because these are similar situations? Your input would be alot more helpful if you would tell us 1) how the situations are similar and 2) how you arrived at the cause/effect of the price drop. Re Vivus, i'll take your word for it that the situation is very complex. But I'll add there are some significant negatives that have developed apparently that would send this stock down, which I mentioned in my previous post. As to Ligant, my mistake, I never heard of them.I mistakenly read it as Ligent. Sorry about that. Now that i know your intent I thank you for posting. A little caution can't hurt. What you introduce here is a real possibility, but with low probability IMO. I don't happen to think much is built into the stock now at 23, but at 29 perhaps some was. I think the PROBABILITY IS LOW based on the company fundamentals. If it does occur it will be strickly the doings of the SHORTS , IMO, and it won't last long, like hours, perhaps. What we are talking about here is possibilities and probabilities. "Risk and Uncertainties" as are part of just about all "red herrings" and most 10Q's and 10K's are statements about "possibilities". The companies leave it up to the investor to arrive at the associated probabilities to make his investment dicisions. David, thanks again, sorry if I let my paranoia get in the way.. :-}