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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (4139)	12/25/1997 1:15:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Respond to of 10921

Jay and other threaders, In looking at the Tuesday IBD I notice that the # of funds have increased to 396 from 389 last week, 373 previously and approximately 360's over a month ago. In the last runup analysist have been quoted as saying, "We were caught behind the last run up." Why hunch is that they do not want to be caught behind the ne pe up to the 30-50 area again. I started to say that the small investor would be the one who gets caught with the high price until I remember the local A.G. Edwards broker who bought AMAT at $54 on margin. He is hurting! Guess no one is immune to the hype of market runups. Merry Christmas to all. Paul V.

To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (4139)	12/25/1997 9:03:00 PM
From: ForYourEyesOnly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Thank you Jay, I really have enjoyed reading your posts, and I think that it is very valuable for people to have access to the counter points of view that you present. I was up 100% in the first half of this year, and I have lost all of that in the past few months thanks to the semis tanking. I don't want to repeat that experience, and I am currently working on a new strategy that is based around the following: 1. Buy and hold only stocks that are heading up or more likely to head up than down in the near future. 2. Sell and do not buy into stocks that are heading down or likely to head down in the near future. As you have pointed out repeatedly, the semi industry is very cyclical, so hopefully it won't be too hard to catch the up cycles and stay away from the down cycles (easier said than done, but I will try). I hope that we can share ideas and information regarding the proper timing to get back in. I work for a number of Japanese semi equipment companies, and I will try to keep an eye on orders over the next 6 months. Apparently Korea is essentially dead now. Not only no new orders, but no payments on orders already placed. Watch out!! Merry Christmas to you and your family!!! THC