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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (56667)	1/16/2016 10:47:17 AM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78648

Identifying Value Buy points - You are right, the S&P mean value range is just a target point but different sectors are/will become buys now or very soon. The Oil & energy sectors are well into that value area but who wants those stocks now. I was looking at DIS and the buy point there using the SMA (200) weekly is at/near $76.00/share. Probably still 26% more possible downside. So the key is to also look at sectors during the sell off. I also use the GN (Graham No.) calculator to provide me some measure of where fair value is. It uses past 10 years of earnings and stated BV. I suspect forward earnings may/could be a bit less if we have a mild recession, so GN values may not rise much in the short term I am also looking at small caps that continue to grow and also pay a dividend as another area. Orchids Paper Products Company (TIS) is one I recently bought that I have been watching a long time. It still is fairly valued and the GN is at/near $20.00/share. Successful stock picking but be patient. EKS

To: Paul Senior who wrote (56667)	1/16/2016 7:58:49 PM
From: E_K_S	1 Recommendation Recommended By research1234 Respond to of 78648

The S&P 500 Dividends Reinvested Price Calculator (With Inflation Adjustment) Been thinking about investments specifically the last 20 years. I remember Wall Street Week and Sir John Templeton. In the early 80's he was quoted as saying DOW 10,000 by the year 2000. That was totally unbelievable but it happened. I used the above S&P calculator to see just what the compounded return was for the S&P from 1985 - 2000 vs @ 2000 - 2015. I was quite surprised by the results ( you do the calculations). I still use a lot of the same fundamental valuation screens for my Buys and focus on buying good companies at an undervalued price and holding forever. I guess those that only started investing in 2000 may feel a bit skeptical about the buy and hold strategy. I too would be with the compounded returns from 2000-2015.. I am not too sure why the compounded rates of return were/are so low (maybe it is the time period you look at) but the 2008/2009 crash and/or the internet bubble crash of 2001 may have been part of the story. I started investing in the late 70's and pretty much added money every year in the 80's through 1990. I watched Wall Street Week and had a large holding in John Templeton's fund. In fact, I used his top 10 holdings as my individual stock picks during that 20 year period from 1980-2000. Many of those buys did very good. Some say Templeton was better than George Soros, Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet combined. My takeaway is you have to keep everything in perspective. I still think the U.S. market is the best market in the world ti invest in and will be for the foreseeable future. EKS

To: Paul Senior who wrote (56667)	1/16/2016 8:22:24 PM
From: Robohogs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78648

I saw a chart before last week that the average stock was down 30+% from the highs. That means 35-40% now. But the algos keeps selling. The moves down are now too fast driven by a horrid SEC. Small investors will go away. I have seen modestly higher E levels putting SPX near 14. With bonds at 2%, that is cheap.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (56667)	1/16/2016 8:49:19 PM
From: Robohogs	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78648

Yardeni last weekend had consensus near 126-127. That gives PE just below 15x. Judging history, that may come down 10% more. It used to be 150 btw. The decline is about 10% more than usual and presto stocks go down. The yardeni data is interesting. I will post link. BUT PEs have been pretty steady since 2000 with exception of 2009. P/S however has been declining for mid and small cap S&P indices - not exactly real small caps as still quite large. So stocks rallied furiously (obviously not as much as large caps over whole period) with revenues keeping pace and PEs only modestly expanding. These record margins we keep hearing about have to be the absorber and they are. SPX500 earnings are at peak margins. Mid and small cap margins are off 1 full percentage point over last decade or so. On mid to high single digit margins, that is not small. yardeni.com Jon PS. Anyone know a site with PEs by sector or better yet a list of SPX stocks and their PEs?