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Biotech / Medical : Oxford Health Plan (OXHP) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Premier who wrote (659)	12/25/1997 2:00:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2068

OXHP will have to raise capital. IMHO, the talks of OXHP's death are premature. That's exactly the solution to an upcoming short-term crisis - they've got to move some near term obligations back a bit and get some breathing room. Would it make an investment safer? Not in itself. I can't imagine OXHP selling equity now; the more likely route is debt. But it would be junky. As always, there is never a good option when a company is in trouble; there is only the lesser of two (or three) evils. The safety comes now from the future viability of Oxford's plans in the marketplace, and their ability to earn supra-normal rates of returns in that marketplace. The commercial plans are viable, but will the HMO environment still be able to offer supra-normal returns? That's a question, not an insinuation. I still expect restructuring charges this Q or next (though I can't imagine why they'd wait) for the Medicare operations and other one-time operational costs. Good Investing, Mike

To: Premier who wrote (659)	12/25/1997 9:31:00 PM
From: Stephen M. DeMoss	Respond to of 2068

Hey Premier, My wife, a nursing administrator who wants us to buy into Oxhp, says she thinks they may seriously consider opting totally out of the medicade/medicare programs. She says this will help their profits immensely since they can not make any money with the portion (alone) that the goverment gives. Initially they offered to take the goverments portion and call that 'paid in full'. They found out they totally lose in that arrangement. She says this could give them a short term black eye (or any of the Hmo's that make this move first) but it will be a necessity. They also can simply force the aged to pay their portion, which they may do. Her opinion is that the strongest provider will be the one to cut the cord of Medicade/medicare first. As an aside, we are very close to buying but SHE says not to yet. She says it will not move up well till the whole industry decides what direction (uniformly?) they want to go. BUT SHE DOES WANT US TO BUY. Usually I dont include her in investing but my Uncle who has invested for 50 years says his best ideas have often come from his wife. She says once we buy, she does not want to sell calls or anything. She says it will eventually revist the 80"-90's. I hid my skeptism. Steve D.