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To: Brumar89 who wrote (915140)1/17/2016 5:16:00 PM
From: Wharf Rat  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1575622
 
Hotspot Found Again: Warming of the Tropical Troposphere Confirms Climate Model Prediction
Posted on 20 May 2015 by Rob Painting

Key Points:
  • As the Earth warms, the lower atmosphere (troposphere) in the tropics is expected to warm at a faster rate than at the surface. The development of this so-called 'hotspot' is an expectation based on principles of atmospheric physics and is therefore also predicted by climate model simulations.
  • This hotspot in the tropical troposphere is not specific to the increased greenhouse effect resulting from industrial carbon dioxide emissions. It would, for example, also be expected in a hypothetical scenario where warming was due to increased solar output.
  • Despite obvious warming of the atmosphere, it had been difficult to confirm the existence of this hotspot primarily due to analytical deficiencies in accounting for temperature data quality and sampling, i.e. it's suspected to have been a 'measurement problem'.
  • Sherwood & Nishant (2015) is the latest scientific paper published in recent years to resolve this issue. By employing an improved analysis method to remove inherent biases in the data, these researchers have once again confirmed the existence of the tropical tropospheric hotspot.


skepticalscience.com



To: Brumar89 who wrote (915140)1/17/2016 6:30:29 PM
From: FJB2 Recommendations

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locogringo

  Respond to of 1575622
 
The Ferguson effect in Los Angeles – more crime


Protesters in Ferguson, Mo.
Protesters stand on top of a police car in front of Ferguson City Hall in November, 2014.

(Los Angeles Times)
Heather Mac Donald

Crime rose dramatically in Los Angeles last year, according to Los Angeles Police Department data. Homicides were up 10%, shooting victims up 12.6%, and aggravated assaults up 27.5%, compared with 2014. Violent crime overall was up nearly 20%. Property crime increased more than 10%.

Los Angeles' crime victims are not alone, however. The city's crime increase is part of a nationwide trend. Homicides are up about 16% in the 60 largest U.S. cities, compared with 2014. Baltimore's per capita killing rate is now the highest in its history. Shootings in Cincinnati were up 30% by mid-September 2015 compared with the same period in 2014. Homicides in St. Louis were up 60% by the end of August. Shootings in Chicago were up 17% and homicides up 15%. Sacramento had the bloodiest 12 months last year since 2008.

The likeliest reason for the crime surge is what I and others call the Ferguson effect: Officers are backing off proactive policing, and criminals are emboldened.
This national crime increase is a reversal from the first half of 2014, when violent crime dropped nearly 5% across the country. Shootings and homicides nationwide began rising in the second half of the year, leaving 2014's violent crime tally a wash. The increase continued through 2015. In response, Atty Gen. Loretta Lynch convened an emergency meeting of 100 police chiefs, mayors and federal prosecutors in October 2015 to strategize about the growing violence.

The likeliest reason for the crime surge is what I and others call the Ferguson effect: Officers are backing off proactive policing, and criminals are emboldened. Since the police killing of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Mo., in August 2014, the Black Lives Matter protest movement has routinely labeled cops murderers and bigots. Activists and politicians denounce pedestrian stops and public-order enforcement as racist. Arrests in urban neighborhoods have become dangerously fraught, with bystanders cursing at officers, throwing things at them, and sometimes interfering with their lawful authority. Cops worry that if they have to use force against a resisting suspect, an incomplete cellphone video that fails to convey the suspect's resistance will put their careers in jeopardy.

Official spokesmen deny that policing practices have changed, but there is evidence that cops are responding to this political and street pressure by doing less of the discretionary policing that has come under such fire. An officer who works on Los Angeles' Westside told me recently: “The topic of Ferguson has been heavily discussed [among cops]. It's had a chilling effect in terms of how line officers perceive their work and how aggressively they approach it. Veteran officers say they now let a lot of things slide that they would not have in the past.” An officer from South Los Angeles reported: “Gang members are emboldened by what is happening. They're constantly … putting phones in our faces, and yelling racial epithets. At some point, especially at night, that phone will be a gun.” L.A. officers are advising one another that it's crazy to get out of their cars, unless it's a 911 call, another cop said.


Arrests in Los Angeles were down more than 9% in 2015 compared with 2014, and down 17% compared with 2013. Arrests decreased further in police divisions where tensions run particularly high. In the Newton Division, arrests are down 13% compared with 2014 and down nearly 28% compared with 2013. Newton was where Ezell Ford was killed by Los Angeles Police Department officers in August 2014 after Ford tried to grab an officer's gun. Homicides in Newton rose 80% in 2015, violent crime was up 25%, and shooting victims, up 31%.

FBI Director James Comey has seconded the Ferguson effect, influenced by conversations with police chiefs and officers across the country. Officers in one big-city precinct described being surrounded and taunted “the moment they get out of their cars,” Comey said in a speech in October. “They told me, ‘We feel like we're under siege.'” Comey concluded: The “chill wind blowing through American law enforcement … is surely changing behavior.”

California's Proposition 47 is probably contributing as well to the state's crime increase. That ballot measure, which went into effect in 2015, downgraded many property and drug felonies to misdemeanors. Criminals are doing a fraction of the time they once were, if they are being arrested at all.

But reaction to anti-cop vitriol is the biggest driver of the crime increase in Los Angeles and nationally. None of the factors usually blamed for crime — poverty, income inequality, the availability of illegal guns — have significantly worsened over the last year and a half. The one thing that has changed is the relentless, virulent discourse about the police.

“Clearly there's a war on the police,” a cop who works in Los Angeles' most gang-infested areas told me. “Physically, it's perpetrated by gang members. But there's also a political war. We can't win that war; citizens will have to.”

Police departments must relentlessly reinforce an officer's obligation to treat everyone with courtesy and respect. They must also drill incessantly on tactics to de-escalate confrontations. Every police killing of an innocent, unarmed civilian is a stomach-churning tragedy. But the number of such police victims is a minute fraction of the people, the majority black, killed by criminals each year. Contrary to the claims of the Black Lives Matter movement, the police are the one government agency most dedicated to the proposition that black lives matter. When the police back off, it's inner-city residents who suffer the most. Unless the discourse around policing changes, more black lives will be lost to gun violence.

Heather Mac Donald is the Thomas W. Smith fellow at the Manhattan Institute and the author of "Are Cops Racist?"



To: Brumar89 who wrote (915140)1/17/2016 8:25:05 PM
From: FJB  Respond to of 1575622
 
Netanyahu Asserts Israel Will Be Iran’s Watchdog


Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel at a cabinet meeting on Sunday. “Without an appropriate response to every violation, Iran will surmise that it can continue to develop nuclear weapons, to destabilize the region and to spread terrorism,” he said. Credit Pool photo by Dan Balilty

JERUSALEM — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel warned on Sunday that his nation would ensure that Tehran never obtains nuclear weapons, while also taking credit for keeping Iran from already having them.

Mr. Netanyahu has been an open and vocal opponent of the deal with Iran. Speaking at the start of the regular weekly cabinet meeting, Mr. Netanyahu said: “Israel’s policy has been and will remain exactly what it has been: not to allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons.”


He also said that the recent accord would strengthen and embolden Iran’s leaders, since the lifting of most sanctions would, he said, free up money for Tehran to arm and support the government of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Shiite militias and Israel’s enemies in the region, including Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

What is clear is that Iran will now have more resources to dedicate to their terrorism and aggression in the region and in the world, and Israel is prepared to deal with any threat,” he said.

Continue reading the main story Graphic The Iran Nuclear Deal – A Simple Guide A guide to help you navigate the talks between global powers and Tehran.


OPEN Graphic

Mr. Netanyahu believes, as he said in a statement issued late Saturday, when it became clear that the United Nations would accept Iran’s partial dismantling of its nuclear infrastructure in what has been called “implementation day,” that “Iran has not relinquished its ambition to obtain nuclear weapons.”

Israel, he said on Sunday, would strengthen its defenses, increase its intelligence resources and would “warn of any violation” of the agreement, while urging the United States and the other members of the United Nations Security Council to reimpose harsh sanctions on Iran if it violated the deal.

“Without an appropriate response to every violation, Iran will surmise that it can continue to develop nuclear weapons, to destabilize the region and to spread terrorism,” he said.

The United States is maintaining and even increasing other sanctions on Iran for non-nuclear actions, like support of terrorism and violation of United Nations resolutions on testing of ballistic missiles.

Mr. Netanyahu’s harsh opposition to the accord and his criticism of President Obama for being naïve about Iran — including in a speech to the United States Congress last year — infuriated the White House and strained relations with Washington, by far Israel’s most important ally.

Yet with the agreement now completed, Mr. Netanyahu has spoken less about it in public and on Sunday seemed to try to make the best of what he considers a bad deal, saying that Israeli efforts had put a nuclear weapon out of Iran’s reach for the time being.

“If it weren’t for our efforts leading the way in enforcing the sanctions on Iran’s nuclear program, Iran would have had a nuclear weapon long ago,” he said.

Yaakov Amidror, a former national security adviser and major general, pointed out that Israel was hardly alone in disliking the Iran nuclear deal, which has also been sharply criticized by Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the gulf states. “I think in the Middle East most of the countries, most of the leadership do not like this agreement,” he told Israel Radio on Sunday.

For Israel, he said, “the agreement is an additional factor in the behavior of the State of Israel like any other given that exists in the Middle East.”

He said he was not surprised that Iran would live up to the agreement it struck with the United States and other world powers — because it favors Iran. “It is an excellent agreement for Iran and therefore Iran will fulfill it down to the last detail,” Mr. Amidror said.

“It has to rebuild its economy and enter the circle of international legitimacy because it can make, within this agreement, very great strides forward in the area of missiles and in the areas of nuclear capability,” he said. “One would have to be a complete idiot not to fulfill this agreement at least in the first five to 10 years.”

The main question now for Israel is whether the International Atomic Energy Agency, which will monitor Iran’s compliance with the deal, acts in a way “more political or more professional,” Mr. Amidror said. He also wondered “how much effort American intelligence will make, despite the agreement, to try to find Iranian violations.”

For the moment, he said, he had confidence in Israel’s developing system of antimissile defenses, especially the Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 systems, which are the country’s main defense against any potential Iranian missile strike.

Also on Sunday, in a continuing wave of stabbing attacks on Israeli security forces and civilians by Palestinians, a woman was killed in her home in the Israeli settlement of Otniel, south of Hebron, by a Palestinian who fled the scene, the Israeli Army said.

Names were not immediately released, and the army was searching nearby Palestinian villages for the attacker.

The attack is believed to be the first such stabbing inside a settlement home in the last three months.

Earlier on Sunday, a Palestinian who attacked a soldier near Nablus was fatally shot. The soldier suffered minor injuries. And a Palestinian woman was arrested near the settlement of Kiryat Arba carrying a knife, according to the Israeli authorities.

Since Oct. 1, 2015, 24 Israelis and 155 Palestinians have been killed, most of the latter after they attacked or attempted to attack Jews, others during protests and clashes.

Israel Radio named the dead Israeli woman as Dafna Meir, age 38 or 39, a hospital nurse and mother of six, including two foster children. Other news reports said that her three youngest children were at home during the attack but were unharmed. Mr. Netanyahu issued a statement, saying: “In the name of all Israelis, I want to embrace and support the family. All of us are hurting and share in your painful grief. We will find the terrorist, and he will pay the full price for this heinous murder.”