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Strategies & Market Trends : General market lab and commentary -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robohogs who wrote (4)	1/19/2016 7:44:31 AM
From: Robohogs	1 Recommendation Recommended By Biotech Jim Respond to of 668

Copied from Biotech board from earlier today. My thoughts: lots of stuff I have been going through takes data for what just happened and looks back at history. One recently looked at all mkts starting this badly and what might be to come. Well guess what, there were few examples. And the answer was mainly biotech-lke, i.e., binary. There were those cases where there was a bear mkt and those not. In continuing bears (i.e., not ending there) there were horrid results. Every other time had flat (1-2x) or big up moves. What does this tell us? Nothing. IF we are not in an ongoing bear mkt here, we will move massively higher from here. If we are at the start of a bear mkt, we will go down. Now that tells me nothing I do not already know. Btw there was a tweet earlier in my feed indicating many strong corrections/weak bears outside of recession. The best known to us are probably 2011 and 1987. 1998 (LTCM and Russia I think) are others. Link below - one gripe. Bad statistical use again. He defined the average loss by defining the set at greater than 10%. A definition at greater than 5% would be much different. awealthofcommonsense.com My posts lately indicate the fallacies of TA. It is good to know but one must study other things too. The key issue is some TA guys are just TA guys while others mix it, but usually with a POLITICAL or PRE-CONCEIVED/BIASED bent. The pure TA guys with lots of artistic feel OR very strict money rules do pretty well. The others use TA to justify their views - Schiff, SG guy, Pento, zerohedge. Lastly, food for thought. I link the below link only for the chart not the bio investors derserved this part. forbes.com Finally (can I do a lastly and a finally?), I may spin off a thread with thoughts and links like these. When at BT, we used to have an economist who sent around books of data graphs/charts and cartoons from all over. I always glanced through it bemused but NOW I get it. Seeing lots of data can help weave a mosaic that makes sense, still likely shaped by your own biases, as you take in only stuff you agree with, but maybe better. And finally, finally, I have one more link below that I just saw. China debt problem! And a link to a post by me on value thread - key point here is healthcare margins over long time period do NOT show (new) price gouging. Jon mobile.twitter.com Message 30410768