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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Berkel who wrote (8881)	12/25/1997 7:59:00 PM
From: Darth Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

Darth's Short Picks: Symbol Buy Stop AAS 53.75 54.75 AHP 72.25 73.25 BFPT 54.00 56.00 CHA 43.50 44.25 DAJ 71.375 72.50 FDX 56.50 57.375 MGA 60.00 62.00 RAD 54.50 57.675 SANM 58.25 59.25 SII 53.438 55.438 SOC 42.375 73.375 OBTW, if Caveat Emptor means "buyer beware" what is "seller Beware"?

To: Michael Berkel who wrote (8881)	12/26/1997 1:20:00 AM
From: Eric Klein	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

Here is an interesting article on Dell. It has convinced me to re-establish my Dell short. Basically, competitors have copied Dell's business model, competition is heating up, margins are under pressure. Dell has high P/S and P/E compared to other box makers, and really, Dell's only business advantage has been it's distribution model. biz.yahoo.com Dell Computer Loses its Pricing Advantage Over Industry Leaders in Commercial Accounts Pricing Parity with Compaq, IBM, HP, Reports Computer Reseller News MANHASSET, NY--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 12, 1997-- The price difference between computers sold by some of the largest vendors and those sold by Dell Computer Corp. (Nasdaq: DELL - news) has all but vanished, blunting the direct vendor's momentum in commercial accounts, according to a report that will be published Monday in CMP's Computer Reseller News (CRN). The predicted turnaround came much sooner than expected, comparing Dell's direct sales to those of indirect vendors like Compaq Computer Corp. (Nasdaq: CPQ - news), IBM Corp. (NYSE: IBM - news) and Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HWP - news). CRN attributed the three vendors' ''win at all costs'' attitude coupled with cost savings realized from channel assembly and build-to-order strategies as having pushed the timetable ahead from the anticipated mid-1998 shift. Citing channel and vendor sources, Computer Reseller News reports that the channel and its vendor partners have outdueled Dell in recent weeks to win several major bids like Compaq's wins at General Motors Corp. [NYSE:GM - news], Procter & Gamble Co., Halliburton Co. NYSE:HAL - news] and Georgia Pacific Corp.

To: Michael Berkel who wrote (8881)	1/1/1998 12:51:00 AM
From: Rick Slemmer	Respond to of 9285

Michael: DELL looks like a good short if it can't clear its declining 50-day MA. The 30-week MA is still rising a bit too steeply for my shorting courage to overcome, though. Penetration of that MA to the downside would be my entry point for shorting. I'm also short CPQ at 55. I expect it to approach the 30-week MA and fall back to find its short-term bottom, possibly in the 40-42 area. I see solid distribution going back to mid-October, abysmal OBV, and much more down volume vs. up volume before the holiday respite. However... I also think we're in for a bit of a rough ride the next couple of weeks as the self-fulfilling January Effect kicks in (not to mention the Forbes cover and CNBC's eternally bullish slant). If the DJIA fails its next test at 8200, the bears will start to show up in a hurry. That will probably coincide with CPQ's test at 60 or 62, and I expect both tests to fail for reasons which aren't even remotely foreseen yet. The folks on the ZONA thread say that the company will fax you a copy of their white paper if you call and ask for it. From all reports it's simply a restatement of already-released corporate propaganda. Crikey - it's almost time to start the party! May 1998 bring you everything you want! RS