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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (8883)	12/25/1997 8:48:00 PM
From: Ploni	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

Pancho, First Call on AOL shows 5 brokers are following PCTY, and estimate them to earn 0.81 in the Dec 1997 quarter, with a low estimate of 0.76, and a high of 0.82. They show 1.35 for Fiscal year 1998, with a low estimate of 1.20, and a high estimate of 1.40. - Charles

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (8883)	12/25/1997 8:50:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

To All more on Party City (pcty): Just read the 1996 10k. Nice and cute typical retail chain business plan but no discussion on how profitability will be achieved. There is talk of a 10% profit contribution per store but no details on whether this is gross or net or whether it is or has been achieved in just some of their best stores or can be achieved in all. IMO they made more under the franchise system but the franchises were not happy so they sold. Co. probably believed (believes) they can improve profitability of the stores but IMO this remains to be proven and probably difficult to achieve. I smell short in 98. Bill Wexller, CalculatedRisk, Roger, Scope, CatLady, M. Carter, and etc. etc. etc. can we have your input on this puppy when you have a chance? Pancho

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (8883)	12/25/1997 11:32:00 PM
From: TAPDOG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

Pancho, I'm embarrassed to say that I don't remember where I first saw PCTY. I've been watching it, but haven't traded because I've recently pledged not to short a stock right before it splits and I seem to recall that it will split on January 5th. It reminds me of Discovery Zone and Boston Chicken. There's nothing proprietary about selling balloons. Someone suggested that YHOO and AOL are better shorts. Probably true and I'm already short those and averaging up, but the problem with AOL and YHOO is that they are trading on stories that cannot be disproved until long in the future. BFIT and PCTY must perform within the next couple of earnings reports or it will tank. Thanks to everyone for their input here. Tappis