Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (17700)	1/21/2016 2:11:48 PM
From: The Ox	2 Recommendations Recommended By 3bar isopatch Respond to of 33421

It sure looks that way: Very deep oversold in August plus this, most recent, one are doing exactly that. The primary trend is yet to bottom. There are a few channels that appear to be at work during this down trend the past 20 days and we've failed each time to take out the top of the channel during the few rallies. Until this changes, no question that the main trend is down.

To: isopatch who wrote (17700)	1/21/2016 3:26:38 PM
From: Hawkmoon	3 Recommendations Recommended By 3bar isopatch The Ox Respond to of 33421

I concur.. I also think that what people aren't paying enough attention to is rounded H&S pattern, in which we just broke the neckline of the August lows.. That's huge resistance, I think, and we know what happens when an H&S flips over.. that's is the downside target.. eventually.. Tomorrow will be interesting.. Hawk

To: isopatch who wrote (17700)	1/21/2016 11:44:01 PM
From: John Pitera	3 Recommendations Recommended By 3bar isopatch roguedolphin Respond to of 33421

With This kind of technical damage.. the bear market has been active we have to see contra deflation actions in both prices and Monetary Policies...... very Oversold Market........McClellan was commenting about a low in later January and we are in that window.... a corrective price rally into Late Feb.. possibly March and more downside into Oct. back in 2012 Art Art Cashin had spoken of the 16.7 year cycle that is also known by a number of market experts.. that would line up with a significant Oct Low from the March 10th 2000 top. The Russell has undergone lots of damage The weekly NASD has a gone through it's Lower Bollinger Band and the RSI Momentum has made a new low on the 10 Year weekly look at the 20 year monthly chart lower to see how we hit off of the lower BB already... The NYSE index weekly is also below it's 200 week MA and it is showing a weekly momentum divergence which is encouraging I really should have waited until the weekend to see how this week finishes up..... But this gives people an idea of what things look like before the weekend. The USD index the weight it is weighted is not showing the distress in the the Russian Ruble , The Chinese Yuan.... and several other currencies Copper is working its way lower grudgingly..... ABX the large Gold miner is talking about a 3 billion dollar impairment to the balance sheet tonight. . Brent Crude has renewed Momentum with a 22 RSI reading... The Dow Jones Industrial QUARTERLY chart from 1900..... even if 2008-2009 corresponds to the 1973-1974 Liquidation Bear Market that was discussed today on this thread by richardred who lived through it and was watching the carnage that it did.... should be able to hit it's lower BB around 10,000 prior to this overall situation being resolved. The Inflation adjusted DJIA ( not shown here) shows a much lower low as prices had gone up by 500% to 800 % from the 1964 until 1980-82 John

To: isopatch who wrote (17700)	1/22/2016 12:47:38 AM
From: John Pitera	1 Recommendation Recommended By Hawkmoon Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

How a Further Fall in China's Yuan Could Shake the World Modeling the effects of a 10 percent drop against the dollar. by Enda Curran January 21, 2016 — 10:00 AM CST China's weakening currency has rattled investors around the globe. How much of a threat does it pose? Oxford Economics modeled scenarios exploring a 10 percent fall in the yuan by the third quarter of 2016 and the spillover response of rival currencies. In itself, a significant move in the yuan against the dollar, if not accompanied by a growth shock in China or *higher financial stress globally, would have only a minor impact on world growth and inflation. But if other exchange rates respond to yuan weakness, as they did recently, the effect suddenly becomes more substantial and differentiated. Here's how Oxford reckons this scenario would play out: Euro zone and Japanese growth would be among the hardest hit because their effective exchange rates would gain, adding deflationary pressure. That could force the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan to ramp up quantitative easing. World growth would slow to 2.4 percent, from Oxford's current forecast of 2.6 percent, and the U.S. Federal Reserve would raise interest rates only once this year. South Korea, Taiwan, and Mexico would benefit, given that their export competitiveness would be boosted by a weakening of their currencies in response to that of China. But here's the rub: China wouldn't see much of an export boost because of the moves in rival exchange rates. "This finding lends credibility to the Chinese authorities’ insistence that they do not wish to engineer a competitive devaluation," said Alessandro Theiss, economist at Oxford Economics. The yuan fell to a five-year low last week, bringing its drop over the past year to more than 5 percent. The Oxford Economics analysis didn’t factor in additional financial stress alongside the yuan's weakness, something that would slow growth further. Their base case is for the yuan to fall 3.5 percent against the dollar by the third quarter, accompanied by global market volatility largely driven by the mixed signals and uncertainties coming out of China. Whatever the outcome, the People's Bank of China could do with improving transparency around its yuan intentions, former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in Hong Kong on Tuesday. "One of my concerns is that the PBOC hasn’t been as transparent as they usually are*.”