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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ForYourEyesOnly who wrote (11961)	12/26/1997 10:06:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

THC, I have been pegged as the DOOM and GLOOM guy on this thread, but I think it make sense to try and estimate the real capacity of the market to absorb UV equipment. I took 1 shift to allow for more systems but if the reality is 3 shifts (which I wholeheartedly agree with you should be the rational approach) than my number are quite high. When you quoted 40,000 start per month for that new fab, was that on the basis of one or three shifts? The only number missing in the estimate is the number of wafer starts at .25 planned over the next few years. I used 50 fabs per year since this is about 10% of the current population of .35 fab. I think that this number might be on the low side. On the other hand, with an over capacity estimated by some at 40% we may have few years of relatively modest growth until these facilities become fully operational. The first signs of withdrawal from the DRAM business by secondary manufacturers has started, with Nippon Steel looking for buyers of some of their iddle capacity and looking to leave the dram business and going into fabbing for others in the logic field. It looks as if Micron has managed to double their share of the dram market without major capital expenditure (their Lehi facility is still non operational), if other can do the same, the outlook forsemi cap is still cloudy for at least the next six mognths. Zeev