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Strategies & Market Trends : APMP (formerly APM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AlienTech who wrote (9487)	12/26/1997 3:00:00 AM
From: WTMHouston	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13456

<<At 10x25 mil = 250mil.. The company has around that much in CASH.>> At the end of last Q, APM had $6.81/share in cash and Book value of $10.22. (I've spent the last hour purusing the 10K). Current estimates are: Q1-98 Q2-98 FY-98 FY-99 Current Mean -0.78 -0.14 -0.83 0.40 7-days ago Mean -0.78 -0.14 -0.83 0.40 30-days ago Mean 0.45 0.40 2.58 3.41 60-days ago Mean 0.95 1.13 4.20 - 90-days ago Mean 0.95 1.13 4.20 - Pretty ugly....If these numbers play out, it also means that book value will decline in FY98 to around $9.00. (I am including one time charges that I don't think are included in the estimates). At least for now, I would not bet on many people believing the 20% gain in Q2-98 (over Q1-98) until they see it. Without more, I don't believe that book value alone will stop this stocks decline....some positive industry news or some cost cutting news from APM (I'm holding my breath like everyone else) would help though....For that matter, we may not have even seen all of the bad news yet. Given, too, that it has only been 2 years since the last "turnaround" was completed, there probably isn't much faith floating around. What they made last year and the trailing PE are, IMO, totally meaningless.... Bottom line, IMO: should it see $10 or less or $8 or less, who knows or cares; could it see less than $10 or even $8 - absolutely. Troy

To: AlienTech who wrote (9487)	12/26/1997 4:15:00 AM
From: Jonathan Bird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13456

Thats less than book value, Liqudating the company can net you 10+. I'm suprised to see you hyping this stock again AT. The fully diluted book value is under 8 dollars as of last Q results. I dont think its going less than 11 1/2 or so.. Every half point since 16 someone calls a bottom on APM. What a joke. 11 will be a distant memory within the week. The writing is on the wall thanks to the latest 10-K. At 10x25 mil = 250mil.. The company has around that much in CASH. They currently have 162.3 in cash and report they need to spend 170 mil this year to treansition to MR. Don't get hit twice with this thing! Jon Bird