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Biotech / Medical : Oxford Health Plan (OXHP) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Premier who wrote (664)	12/26/1997 3:09:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2068

Any bank will gladly lend oxhp short term working capital loan. Oh I don't doubt that. When I said junky, I meant that the rates would not be favorable. Such an improvement in income statement will give tremedous lift to margin of safety in the balance sheet. We basically agree that the margin of safety will have to come from the income statement at this point (in the form of supra-normal margins/returns) . Investors 'round the world don't mind that, so it is indeed a speculative buy. Even Graham acknowledged that speculators serve a function. Now that all the HMO's have been hit, those looking to play the sector have to do wholesale new comparisons of the major players. A strong balance sheet offers a present margin of safety as well as the opportunity for acquiring solid businesses on the cheap and expanding market share during an industry recession. My guess is the first to true national coverage will start racking up enrollment gains and stealing share from the remaining players. Good Investing, Mike

To: Premier who wrote (664)	12/26/1997 6:09:00 PM
From: Stephen M. DeMoss	Respond to of 2068

Did anyone read the news today on Aetna? Confirms that the problems Oxhp are facing are not specific to them (on all fronts). What do you mean it is a speculative buy? If your referring to guessing the bottom (15,14,12,?) that is one thing but if your saying it is speculative because it is like a tech stock which may be out dated soon, I disagree. Hmo's will likely merge over the next year or two and we'll see change for sure (Uniform cost structure?), but I sincerely doubt it is speculative in terms of it staying in business. Comments? Ps. Im still not in yet so I am semi-objective<G>. Steve D.