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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Harkness who wrote (13861)	12/26/1997 11:45:00 AM
From: Steve Robinett	Respond to of 70976

Mike, <<...a bad market could also derail AMAT.>> A bad market derails everything but the average bear market during the last 50 years hasn't lasted over two years and you don't get a big-time bear (overall 50% pullback) without recession fears in the wind. The economic fundamentals are currently extremely good. The general market is probably something like 15% overvalued and bottom line earnings could slow a bit more than analysts currently expect. The yield curve is currently suggesting a slowdown next year. The worst I can see going foward is a 20-25% pullback on revised earnings expectations. I suppose that could drive AMAT into the low 20s, assuming no change in company fundamentals, even more of a bargain. Best, -Steve